Fade Stroman at Home vs Rockies

Rockies vs. Cubs, 2:20 ET

Well, for the first time this season, Miles Mikolas at home really let me down. Somehow the pesky Reds caused me to lose two units and forced a losing day after a nice easy win to start it with the Rays. The Mets/Pirates play turned out to just be a bad call so that is completely on me. Let’s get a strong weekend here.

I’m starting with the Cubs vs. Rockies. The Rockies road struggles have been well documented by me and we’ve seen a fair share of struggles from German Marquez. However, he isn’t having those issues on the road. In his road starts, he has a 3.58 road ERA and it is almost identical during day starts. We all know the ball flies out of Coors Field, but keep in mind, this doesn’t hurt everyone as bad as it does Marquez. In 15 home starts, he has allowed 19 home runs. In his 12 road starts, just eight home runs. His splits are literally night and day – night starts he has allowed 69 earned runs, and day starts, just 23 (for reference he has 18-night starts and nine-day, so a third of the runs in half of the starts). The first time he faced the Cubs, at Coors, he didn’t miss many bats. He allowed 10 hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings. He is on a streak of five straight quality starts on the road.

Want to hear about another guy who’s splits are really alarming? Marcus Stroman would love to never pitch at Wrigley Field. On the road, he has a stellar 1.84 ERA over 12 starts on the year. At home, it has been anything but the friendly confines. He has allowed 35 earned runs over 44.1 innings resulting in a 7.11 ERA. Yeesh. Arguably his worst road start of the season came against the Rockies, too. Important to note as we see that he is significantly better on the road, but he allowed six hits and five earned runs over four innings. In three of his last four home starts, he has allowed four or more earned runs. He’s only made it past the fifth inning once at home this season.

The Rockies aren’t a team I’ll often back on the road, but clearly, the starting pitchers are in a reverse situation here. Marquez is good on the road, and Stroman is bad at home. I’m not going to take the full game here as I’m only losing five cents here. I’m only going to play the first five moneyline and back the Rockies at +110.

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Written by David Troy

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