Fade Or Follow The Public: Tuesday’s NHL Games

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I’m looking to bounce back from my last fade or follow where I went 0-2. Both the Bruins and Hurricanes won in overtime, which really stabbed me in the heart. Let’s hope that this doesn’t happen again and we get back on track.

Lightning (-126) vs. Hurricanes (+108) 6:30 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay is looking to close out the series after a great comeback in game 4. The Lightning has dominated this series since the beginning and is up 3-1. The only loss was game 3, where they lost 2-3. The public believes that the Lightning will close out the series tonight as 70% of the bets are on Tampa Bay’s Moneyline.

The Hurricanes finished 1st in the Central with 80 points with a 0.67 SRS, scored 3.13 goals a game, allowed 2.39 goals. They converted on 25.61% of their power plays and successfully stopped 85.23% of their power-killing opportunities. The Hurricanes will be without two of their great players again in Vincent Trocheck and Nino Niederreiter. Trocheck finished the regular season with 43 points on 17 goals and 26 assists. Niederreiter finished the regular season with 34 points on 20 goals and 14 assists.

The Lightning finished 3rd in the Central with 75 points with a 0.53 SRS, scored 3.21 goals a game, and allowed 2.59 goals. They could score on 22.22% of their power plays and successfully killed 84.15% of their power-killing opportunities. This was without their best player in Kucherov, who has been amazing these playoffs. Kucherov has 17 points this playoffs and is averaging 1.7 points per game. With Kucherov, the Lightning’s power play has been amazing, converting 41.2% in the 10 playoff games.

Carolina’s head coach Rod Brind’Amour has yet to decide who’s starting between the pipes. It’s between Petr Mrazek and Alex Nedeljkovic. Mrazek has started the last two games and is 1-1 with a .873 save percentage and allowed 3.90 goals a game. Nedeljkovic started the first two games and went 0-2 with a .911 save percentage and allowed 2.04 goals a game.

For Tampa Bay, Andrei Vasilevskiy is once again starting. Vasilevskiy has been amazing these entire playoffs. In-game 4 was his worst game where he allowed 4 goals, saved 21 shots and had a .840 save percentage. During the regular season, he allowed 2.21 goals a game and had a .925 save percentage.

Carolina has been amazing at home, where they are 9-3 in their last 12 home games. Tampa Bay hasn’t won three consecutive games in Raleigh in one season in the last 8 years. They are trying to break that tonight since they won the first two home games and are looking to seal the series tonight. I’m following the public and believe that it doesn’t matter how good the Hurricanes are at home. Tampa Bay is the better team, and with Kucherov, they are an amazing team.

The pick: Lightning -126

Golden Knights (+130) vs. Avalanche (-154) 9:00 p.m. ET

This has been a great series so far where Colorado won the first two games, and then Las Vegas has turned around and won the last two games. Two of these games have been very close where the winning team only won by one goal, and the other two games were blowouts. Colorado is looking to take the series lead, and the public believes that this will happen as 69% of the bets are on the Avalanche.

Colorado finished 1st in the West Division with 82 points. The Avalanche had a 1.00 SRS, scored 3.52 goals a game, allowed 2.36 goals a game. They converted on 22.71% of their power plays and successfully stopped 83.05% of their power-killing opportunities. The Avalanche have been outshot 119-63 in this series and have been outscored 9-4 since the 2nd period of game 2. Colorado shot 1937 total shots in the regular season, where the league average is 1678 shots for an average of 34.5 shots a game. In this series, they are only averaging 15.75 shots.

Las Vegas finished 2nd in the West Division, also having 82 points. The Golden Knights had a 1.05 SRS, scored 3.39 goals a game, allowed 2.18 goals. They scored on 17.82% of their power plays and successfully killed 86.81% of their power-killing opportunities. The Knights are a good defensive team, but not as great as the numbers they are producing this series. In the regular season, Vegas allowed 1527 shots, and the league average is 1678. Their average shots allowed were 27.2 shots compared to this season, where they are only allowing Colorado to shoot 15.75 times.

Philipp Grubauer is starting between the pipes tonight. Grubauer has been great at home these playoffs, where he is 4-0, allowing 1.73 goals a game, with a .944, save percentage. It’s not only the playoffs where he has been great but also during the regular season where he went 19-4-1, allowing 1.60 goals a game with a .935 save percentage. Marc Andre Fleury is starting for Las Vegas, where he has been amazing again. Fleury during the regular season averaged 1.98 goals a game with a .928 save percentage.

Colorado has been great at home this season, going 26-4-2, and has won every home game in the playoffs. The Avalanche are great at bouncing back after a bad loss. They are 12-2 following a loss of 3 or more. With how great Colorado is at home, I believe that Vegas won’t keep shutting down the Avalanche’s great offense. So I’m following the public with my pick.

The pick: Avalanche -154

Written by David Lawrence

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