Fade Or Follow The Public: Tuesday’s MLB Games

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These articles should be fade or follow me, and spoiler alert, you should be heavily fading me. I’m on super a cold streak, going 0-6 lately. Hopefully, today I can get things going with two MLB games. I’m still hovering around 50% in my fade or follow picks, but I’d like to see that success rate a few percentage points higher.

Mets (-200) vs. Cardinals (+168) 7:46 p.m. ET 

The strugglings Mets are looking to bounce against the Cardinals tonight. The Mets haven’t lived up to the hype and are 11-12 so far this season. Thankfully for New York, the NL East is very weak, with the Nationals on top with a 12-12 record. Both the oddsmakers and the public think that the Mets will easily win this game, with 82% of the bets on New York.

-200 is a bad value for a team under .500, so instead, I’ll be looking at the total of 6.5 runs. The public, like always, is rooting for points, with 63% of picks on the over. Jacob deGrom is starting for the Mets and will try to keep up his unreal stats. So far in 2021, deGrom is 2-2 in five games with a ridiculous 0.51 ERA and 0.571 WHIP. deGrom has only allowed 2 runs this season in 35 innings pitched. The 2 runs were scored only because of two solo home runs. For the Cardinals, Johan Oviedo is taking the mound tonight. So far, in 2021, he is 0-0 in two games with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.931 WHIP.

Even though the Mets spent money this offseason, their bats haven’t shown up. They are 30th in runs scored, T29th in hits, and 30th in home runs. The Cardinals bats aren’t exactly on fire this season; they are T4th in runs, 14th in hits, and T6th in home runs.

For the season, betting the under on the Mets has been profitable, as they are hitting at 57.1%. For the Cardinals, their totals aren’t one-sided; their under has gone 48.1%. Jacob deGrom is starting, and I don’t care what the total is set at; I’m picking the under. With the addition of the Mets struggling to score runs and deGrom starting, I’m fading the public.  

The pick: Under 6.5 runs

Update: deGrom scratched. Castro to start for the Mets.

Updated pick: Under 8 runs

Rays (+102) vs. Angels (-120) 9:39 p.m. ET

We have two subpar teams battling it out tonight. The Angels are once again wasting another year of Mike Trout’s prime since they are 13-14 so far this season. The Rays aren’t looking like the Rays that made the World Series last year. They are 15-15 so far this season and 3rd in the AL East. The public believes that the Angels will win this game, as 51% of picks are on Los Angeles.

Shane McClanahan is taking the mound for the Rays. So far in 2021, he is 0-0 in one game started with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP. The most important stat is that McClanahan is a lefty, and the Angels struggle against left-handed pitchers. Los Angeles is 1-6 in their last seven games vs. left-handed starters. The Angels’ bats are very quiet against southpaws; they are 24th with a .297 base percentage against lefties. For the Angels, Alex Cobb is starting. So far in 2021, he is 1-1 in four games with a 7.16 ERA and 1.776 WHIP.

The Rays aren’t a great offensive team; they are 14th in runs, 11th in hits, and T19th in home runs. The Angels hit the ball great but don’t score on their opportunities; they are 12th in runs, 2nd in hits, and T3rd in home runs. I’m fading the public with my pick because of the Angels’ struggles against lefties and Cobb’s struggles.  

The pick: Rays +102

Written by OutKick Bets

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