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It was a rough night for fading or following the public. I thought the public was wrong, but in reality, they were correct. I went 0-2; the Cardinals played a great game, but Zack Wheeler was terrific last night. He pitched 8 innings, allowed 1 hit, 1 earned run, and had 9 strikeouts. My analysis for the Rockies and Giants total was correct. The Rockies couldn’t do anything against San Francisco’s excellent pitching, but it didn’t matter because the Giants hit the over by themselves. A team that is 25th in runs managed to score 12 runs last night.
We are going to put these games behind us and move onto tonight’s games. It’s gambling; if you’re at 52%, you’re breaking even, and that’s better than a lot of people. After last night’s games, the Fade or Follow record is 27-25 overall and 12-11 in baseball.
Cubs (+146) vs. Braves (-174) 7:21 p.m. ET
The Cubs are looking to bounce back from a close loss last night since losing 7-8 against the Braves. The -174 is horrible value for two teams that played a close game last night, so instead, I’m going to look at the total, set at 9 runs. The public believes that this will be another high-scoring game as 59% of picks are over.
The Cubs started the season ice cold, but their offense has turned things around. In their last four games, they are averaging 6.5 runs per game. They are now T11th for runs per game and T4th in home runs. Kris Bryant will look to build off his momentum after his grand slam last night. The Braves are led by Ronald Acuna Jr, who went hitless last night but did score after being walked. The Braves have the same offensive stats as the Cubs; they are T11th for runs per game and T4th in home runs.
Their offense isn’t the only thing that Chicago and Atlanta have in common; they also have a horrible pitching staff. Chicago is 26th in earned runs per game and T18th in hits allowed. Atlanta is 27th in earned runs per game and 22nd in hits allowed. Trevor Williams takes the mound for the Cubs tonight. So far in 2021, he is 2-1 in four games with a 4.66 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. For the Braves, Ian Anderson is starting. So far in 2021, he is 1-0 in 4 games with a 3.27 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. With the combination of bad pitching, these teams scoring 15 runs last night, and good offenses, I’m following the public with my pick.
The pick: Over 9 runs
Angels (-148) vs. Rangers (+135) 8:06 p.m. ET
Last night, Ohtani was excellent once again. He struck out 9 batters on the mound, and in the batter’s box, he had 2 RBIs. The Angels easily beat the Rangers 9-4 and are the heavy favorite tonight for good reasons. Instead of picking a side, I will look at the total set at 9 runs.
The public believes that this will be another high-scoring game as 54% of the picks are on over. The Angels and Rangers both have a lousy pitching staff. Los Angeles is 30th in runs allowed and 30th in ERA. Texas is not far behind: 29th in runs allowed and 28th in ERA. Jose Quintana is taking the mound for the Angels. So far in 2021, he is 0-1 in 3 games with a 9.00 ERA and 2.300 WHIP. For the Rangers, Mike Foltynewicz is starting, and so far in 2021, he is 0-3 in four games with a 5.32 era and a 1.227 WHIP.
The Angels are 11-10 for the season because they have a great offense. Los Angeles is 7th in runs, 3rd in hits, and T2nd in home runs. Unlike the Angels, Texas is a bad pitching team and a mediocre offensive team. The Rangers are 20th in runs, T10th in hits, and T11th in home runs. Both of these pitchers have greatly struggled this season, and I see their struggles continuing. With that and the combination of good offenses, I’m following the public with my pick.
The pick: Over 9 runs