Fade Or Follow The Public: Tuesday’s MLB Games

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Indians (-108) vs. White Sox (-108) 8:11 p.m. ET

Cleveland is taking on Chicago tonight in the second game of the series. Last night, the White Sox won 4-3 and are looking to get on the right track since they are 5-5 this season. The public believes that the Sox will win, as 56% of bets are on Chicago. The White Sox will need to get on a winning streak if they want to get to their projected win total, set at 89.5. The Indians were supposed to be a bad team this year. Their win total was projected to be 82.5, but so far, Cleveland is 5-4. They’re being led by fantastic pitching. Cleveland breeds impressive pitchers. The Indians have had Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger in their pitching rotation. Tonight, Shane Bieber is taking the mound. Bieber was last year’s CY Young winner; he has a career 3.33 ERA and 9.1 WAR. Lucas Giolito is starting tonight for Chicago; he has a 4.43 ERA and 6.9 WAR. The Indians not only have the advantage in starting pitching, but their entire pitching staff is amazing.

Cleveland is 5th in ERA, T4th in saves, and has held batters to an impressive .170 batting average, 1st in the league. Their offense, by comparison, isn’t great. They are 27th in hits, 20th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Cleveland is the complete opposite of Chicago. The White Sox are T9th in hits, 11th in batting average, and T13 home runs, while their pitching is 11th in ERA, T22 saves, and allows a .218 batting average. The White Sox have a marginally better offense, but the Indians have a much better pitching staff. Also, Chicago is 1-8 in their last nine games as an underdog. This is why I’m fading the public.  

The pick: Indians -108

Angels (-136) vs. Royals (+116) 9:11 p.m. ET

Los Angeles is looking to win back-to-back games against Kansas City since they dominated last night, winning 10-3. The public thinks that the Angels will win again tonight, as 72% of picks are on the Angels. Los Angeles is an impressive 7-3, compared to Kansas City’s 4-4 record. The Angels are led by a great offense; they are 6th in hits, 7th in batting average, and T4th in home runs. They have a measly pitching staff that is 24th in ERA, 17th in batting average allowed, and T11th in home runs allowed. The Royals, on the other hand, have both a terrible offense and a lousy pitching staff. Their offense is 23rd in hits, 10th in batting average, and T22 in home runs. Kansas City’s pitching staff is almost as bad; they are 24th in ERA, 17th in batting average allowed, and T6 in home runs allowed. I’m following the public since I believe that the Angels’ offense will lead them to another victory against this bad Royals pitching staff.   

The pick: Angels -136

Reds (-104) vs. Giants (-112) 9:46 p.m. ET

The red hot Reds keep on rolling, as they won 3-0 last night against the Giants. Three runs are nothing for this fantastic offense. The Reds are 3rd in hits, T1st in home runs, 4th in batting average, and 1st in runs. I’m not going to look at which side to pick but instead look at the total, set at 7.5 runs. The public believes that the Giants’ pitching staff will extinguish the Reds’ offense, as 57% of picks are under. Cincinnati is the second-best team for betting the over since they are 7-3 in overs. San Francisco is the complete opposite. Their overs have gone 2-8. This is because of the Giants’ amazing pitching staff. They are 2nd in ERA, 5th in earned runs, and 3rd in home runs allowed. Tonight, Kevin Gausman is taking the mound for San Francisco; he has a career 4.22 ERA and 1.321 WHIP. Luis Castillo is starting for Cincinnati; he has a career 3.68 ERA and 1.452 WHIP. The Giants will need to get their bats going if they want a chance to win. They are 28th in hits, 29th in batting average, T4th in home runs, and 26th runs. I don’t believe that the Giants can keep this great offense down, and the Reds will score tonight. This is why I’m fading the public.     

The pick: Over 7.5 runs

Written by OutKick Bets


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  1. Early game bet for me is on the over in the Oakland vs Arizona game 8.5 (-115)

    I agree with a lot of what you said about Cleveland. The reason I can’t bet on them is the defense is also below average. The Indians will be in a lot of ugly games this season.

    I am on the Angels and I like that lineup when Shohei Ohtani is batting. Could be a good over team against a KC team with no depth in the bullpen.

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