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Fade Or Follow The Public: Thursday’s NHL Games

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On Tuesday’s fade or follow, I should’ve ignored the stats of how good the Panthers were at home. I knew that the Lightning were a completely different team with Kucherov playing. I did call the Knights taking care of business at home though. Hopefully, we will get a couple more victories tonight.

Penguins (+104) vs. Islanders (-122) 7:15 p.m. ET

The Penguins were able to tie up the series with a 2-1 win on Tuesday. New York kept the game close, as they have this entire series. In Game One, the Islanders won 4-3 in overtime. The public believes that Pittsburgh will keep its momentum, as 62% of the bets are on the Penguins’ Moneyline.

The Islanders struggle to score since they average only 2.71 goals a game and complete only 18.75% of their power plays. The reason why they finished 32-17-7 wasn’t because of their offense, but because of their defense. They only allow 2.23 goals a game and have been able to stop 83.70% of power plays successfully. New York is playing the same style of hockey that allowed them to make the Conference Finals. Semyon Varlamov is starting for New York. For the season, he has allowed 2.04 goals a game and has a .929 save percentage.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is led by offense guru Sidney Crosby, who finished the season with 24 goals, 38 assists, and 62 points. The Penguins score 3.45 goals a game and complete 23.68% of their power plays. They allow 2.77 goals a game on the defensive side and kill 77.42% of their power-killing opportunities. Tristan Jerry is staying in the net for the Penguins. For the season, he has allowed 2.75 goals a game and has a .909 save percentage.

The Islanders were able to steal a game away from the Penguins in Pittsburgh, which was impressive since the Penguins are tied for the best home record. They went 22-4-2 in Pittsburgh. New York is a great home team, as they had the 3rd best home record, going 21-4-3. Whenever the Islanders have returned to Long Island after a seven-game road trip, they have won the following game at home, a perfect 6-0. Well, New York has been away from home since May 8th. With how great New York plays at home and their playing style that makes them great on defense, I’m fading the public with my pick.

The pick: Islanders -122

Golden Knights (-118) vs. Wild (+100) 9:45 p.m. ET

The Knights were able to even up the series with a 3-1 victory on Tuesday, after they lost Game One 0-1 in overtime. The public believes that the Knights will go up 2-1, as 82% of the picks are on Vegas’s Moneyline.

In every stat, the Golden Knights are the superior team. Vegas finished the season with a 1.05 SRS, scored on 17.82% of power plays, and was able to stop 86.81% of their power-killing opportunities. They scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 2.84 goals a game. Marc-Andre Fleury is starting again for Vegas. He’s allowed only 2 goals and has successfully stopped 63 shots this series. For the season, Fleury has a .928 save percentage and has allowed 2.63 goals a game.  

On the other hand, the Wild had a 0.33 SRS, scored on 17.58% of power plays, and successfully killed 80.75% of their power killing opportunities. They scored 3.21 goals a game and allowed 2.84 goals against. Cam Talbot is starting again tonight; he allowed 2.63 goals a game and has a .915 save percentage. He couldn’t find the same magic in Game Two, as he allowed 3 goals and stopped 25 shots.

Even though the Golden Knights might be better statistically, Minnesota has had Vegas’s number this year. The Wild are 6-0-2 against the Golden Knights in St. Paul, and this season Minnesota is 5-3 against Vegas. Overall, the Wild are a great home team since they went 20-6 at home. When playing on one day of rest, the Wild are 7-2. I’m ignoring Minnesota’s home stats and following the public with the better team.

The pick: Golden Knights -118

Written by David Lawrence

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