Fade Or Follow The Public: Thursday’s NHL Games

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In my last fade or follow, I had a great night, going 2-0. Believing that the Lightning would not lose back-to-back games was the right move. I hit on the Money Line and the puck line when Tampa Bay won 4-2. The number of games is starting to dwindle, but tonight we will look at Game Three of the Islanders and Lightning series.

Lightning (-138) vs. Islanders (+118) 8:15 p.m. ET

Though the Islanders will be at home, the sportsbooks believe that the Lightning will win. It’s not just the sportsbooks. The public also believes that Tampa Bay will win tonight, as 53% of picks are on the Lightning’s Moneyline.

The Islanders are one of the league’s best teams while playing at home. During the regular season, they had the 3rd best home record, going 21-4-3, and during these playoffs, they are 4-2 while in Long Island. Not only are they great at home, but they are also great while playing on one day of rest. The Islanders are 7-1 in their last eight games while having one day of rest. The Lightning are 3-3 in their last six games in Long Island.

On Tuesday, Varlamov of the Islanders let in four goals while only saving 23 shots. The loss on Tuesday broke the Islanders and Varlamov’s four-game win streak. Vasilevskiy allowed two goals while saving 24 shots. The stars for the Islanders and Lightning both scored on Tuesday. For the Islanders, Barzal had one goal, and for the Lightning, Kucherov had 3 points; all of them were assists.

In the regular season, these teams had similar stats, with Tampa Bay being the better offensive team and the Islanders being the better defensive team. The Lightning finished with a 0.53 SRS, 3.21 goals per game, allowed 2.59 goals a game, converted on 22.22% of their power plays, and were able to kill 84.15% of their power killing opportunities. For the Islanders, they finished with a 0.44 SRS, 2.71 goals per game, allowed 2.23 goals a game, were able to score on 18.75% of their power plays, and were able to stop 83.70% of their power killing opportunities.

With these teams being so close, I’m relying on the Islanders’ home-ice advantage. This is why I’m fading the public with my pick.

The pick: Islanders +118

Written by David Lawrence

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