Fade Or Follow The Public: Thursday's NBA Games
We finally broke the losing streak, and we won with a nice +102 underdog, thanks to the Rays. My analysis of the Mets and Cardinals total didn't matter because deGrom was scratched because of tightness on his right side, and then the game was rained out. Tonight for some reason, baseball has all early games. I love afternoon games as much as the next person, but maybe space them out a little bit to have some night games. So we will instead be looking at the NBA.
Wizards (+2.5) vs. Raptors (-2.5) 7:30 p.m. ET
These are two bad teams battling it out tonight, but the Wizards have a chance to make the playoffs because of the play-in tournament. Washington is currently sitting at 30-36 and is the 10th seed. They are only 0.5 games behind the Pacers for the chance to play in the play-in tournament. Westbrook is putting up insane numbers, as he is trying to will the Wizards to wins. The Raptors have waved the white flag for this season since they have no real chance of making the playoffs. They have a 27-34 record and are the 11th seed in the East. The public believes that Westbrook will lead the Wizards to a win, as 73% of picks are on Washington. The sportsbooks don't care what the public is betting since the lines have fluctuated a lot this morning. It opened at Wizards +1.5, went to +3, and is now +2.5.
The Wizards have been excellent of late; they are 11-3 in their last fourteen games with impressive wins over the Lakers, Pelicans, and Jazz. Their three losses were against playoff-caliber teams: the Bucks, Mavericks, and Spurs. The Raptors, by comparison, are 7-7.
Washington has been a great team against the spread this year. They are 38-28 ATS, and as away underdogs, they are 15-11 ATS. The Raptors are 30-36 ATS, after a loss, they are 18-20 ATS, and as home favorites, they are 10-10 ATS. The last time the Raptors and Wizards played was on April 5th. The Raptors won 103-101, but Washington didn't have Bradley Beal.
The stats for both of these teams are very similar. The Wizards are 13th overall, 19th in offensive rating, and 20th in defensive rating. Toronto is 18th overall, 14th in offensive rating, and 13th in defensive rating. I'm following the public with my pick today. The Wizards are playing for way more than the Raptors, Washington is the hotter team right now, and the Wizards will have the two best players in the game, Westbrook and Beal.
The pick: Wizards +2.5
Grizzlies (-9) vs. Pistons (+9) 8:15 p.m. ET
One of these teams is fighting for the playoffs, and the other is fighting for the No. 1 draft pick. The Grizzlies are the 8th seed in the West now, and the Pistons are dead last in the East. The spread of -9 is high for a team that is only one game above .500. So instead, I'll be looking at the total, which is set at 223.5 points. The public, like always, is rooting for points, as 68% of the picks are on the over.
Gambling on Detroit's under has been profitable this season since they are 35-30-1, compared to Memphis, whose under has gone 30-35. The Grizzlies rank 9th for defensive rating, score a decent amount of points (13th in ppg), and play at a fast pace since they are 8th in pace. The Pistons are an awful offensive team, ranking 26th for offensive rating, 27th in ppg, and 22nd in pace. For Detroit, their offense will be missing their top two scorers, Jerami Grant, who averages 22.5 ppg, and Josh Jackson, who averages 13.4 ppg.
In their last seven games, Pistons games have averaged 208.5 points, compared to Grizzlies games, which have averaged 224.8 points. These two teams last played on February 19th, and Memphis won 109-95 for 204 points. I'll be fading the public with my pick, as I believe a similar score will happen again.
The pick: Under 223.5 points