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Fade Or Follow The Public: Thursday’s MLB Games

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We finally hit a 2-0 night. Unfortunately, both games were delayed on Friday, but my analysis was still accurate for Saturday. The Red Sox beat the White Sox 7-4, and the Mets vs. Rockies went under. We did have to sweat it out since the total was 9.5, and the game finished at 9 runs. It puts the fade or follow record at 26-22 and 11-8 in baseball.   

Angels (+108) vs. Astros (-126) 8:11 p.m. ET

The Astros started the season looking like they were back to their cheating ways. The offense was great, and they were easily winning games. That’s not the case anymore. The offense has disappeared, and they have lost nine out of their last ten. The public thinks it will be ten out of their previous eleven, since 51% of bets are on the Angels Moneyline. The Angels are looking to chase the red hot A’s since they are only 1.5 games behind in the AL West. Los Angeles has had Houston’s number recently. The Angels are 6-1 in their last seven against the Astros.

Cristian Javier is taking the mound tonight in hopes of getting Houston back on track. Javier has had a great season this year, but this will be his first start in three weeks. Javier was sent to a training facility to work on his stamina. In 2021, Javier is 1-0 in two starts, with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. Alex Cobb is starting for the Angels tonight in 2021; he is 1-0 in two starts, with a 4.63 ERA and 1.2000 WHIP. It’s clear that the Astros have the pitching advantage tonight, but will Javier be able to get into deep innings, or will his stamina fall short again?

On the offensive side of the ball, the Angels are the better team. The Angels are 7th in hits, T3rd home runs, and 2nd in batting average, while the Astros are 10th in hits, T16th in home runs, and 11th in batting average. I see the Astros’ struggles continuing, and I don’t have faith in Cristian Javier in his first start, so I’m following the public.

The pick: Angels +108

Padres (+154) vs. Dodgers (-184) 10:11 p.m. ET

Two of the most exciting teams play again tonight, and if it’s like their last series, it’ll be another great game. The -184 isn’t great value for a Moneyline, so instead, I’m going to look at the total, set at 7.5 runs.

It’s a surprising total. When you think of the Dodgers, you think of their great offense, while the Padres’ nickname is literally Slam Diego. If we were going by general thought, the over would be the play, but the public doesn’t think so since 53% of bets are on the under. The under for the Dodgers are 12-6 this season, and the Padres are 14-6. The Dodgers and Padres are opposites for runs scored. Los Angeles is 3rd in runs per game, and San Diego is 20th.

Ryan Weathers is hoping to slow down the Dodgers’ offense tonight. Weathers has been fantastic this season; he is 1-0 in 4 games, with a 0.93 Era and 0.724 WHIP. Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers tonight; he is 1-0 in 3 games, with a 2.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. San Diego and LA averaged 8.6 runs in their last series, but that’s primarily because of the first game when 17 runs were scored. In their next two games, only 9 runs were scored. I believe that this game will be another low-scoring game, so I’m following the public.   

The pick: Under 7.5 runs

Written by OutKick Bets

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