Fade Or Follow The Public: Thursday’s MLB Games

All odds in this article come from our partner, FanDuel Sportsbook. Right now, new FanDuel Sportsbook users can make their first bet risk-free up to $1,000. If the bet loses, the FanDuel Sportsbook will refund you in site credit.

A $1,000 two-team parlay using the picks below would win $2,713 (+271). New users can lock in this offer NOW by clicking this link.

On Tuesday, we had a boring night of gambling. I went 1-1 with the White Sox crushing the Twins, and the Red Sox were down by one in the bottom of the 9th with runners on the corners with two outs. Well, Christian Vazquez popped a little blooper that the first baseman quickly caught in foul territory. Hopefully, tonight we can have a better night.

Reds (-138) vs. Rockies (+118) 8:41 p.m. ET

Tonight we have two bad teams going against each other. Instead of figuring out which lousy team is less bad, we will look at the total set at 11.5 runs. Surprisingly the public isn’t rooting for points, as 73% of picks are on the under.  

11.5 runs is a lot of runs, and there’s a reason the line is so high. The Reds are the best team for betting the over; they are 22-11-1, compared to the Rockies, who are 18-18-1. Cincinnati is the best over team because they are 6th in runs, 10th in hits, and T3rd for home runs. The Rockies are similar to the Reds with their offense 9th in runs, 9th in hits, and T21st in home runs. Regardless of how great these offenses are, 11.5 runs is a very high total. If the total were 11.5 for the last fifteen games, the Reds would’ve gone 3-12 if you bet the over. The Rockies would’ve gone 5-10.  

For the Rockies, Chi Chi Gonzalez is taking the mound tonight. So far in 2021, Gonzalez is 1-1 in seven games with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.570 WHIP. Luis Castillo is starting tonight for the Reds. So far in 2021, Castillo is 1-4 in seven games with a 6.42 ERA and 1.634 WHIP. To say these two pitchers aren’t great would be an understatement. Even though these teams have top 10 offenses in runs scored and both have bad starting pitchers, 11.5 runs is way too high of a total; I’m following the public.  

The pick: Under 11 runs

Indians(-116) vs. Mariners (-102) 10:11 p.m. ET   

One of these teams has been red hot, and the other has been ice cold, which makes the line confuse me. Cleveland has been the super-hot team in their last nine games. They have gone 8-1. Seattle, meanwhile, is 3-6 and is currently on a four-game losing streak. The public believes that the Indians will make it a five-game losing streak, since 73% of picks are on Cleveland.  

The Indians have relied on great pitching this year, and Zach Plesac is taking the mound for Cleveland tonight. So far in 2021, Plesac is 2-3 in seven games with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.025. For the Mariners, their prospect Logan Gilbert is getting his first major league start. In his one start for the Mariners’ AAA team, he got the win and posted an impressive 1.80 ERA. Neither the Indians nor the Mariners have impressive offenses. Cleveland is 24th in runs, 30th in hits, and T16th in home runs, compared to Seattle, who is 20th in runs, 28th hits, and T14th home runs. Even though the Indians have a sub-par offense, they get wins, which is what we are looking for. So we are following the public with this pick.  

The pick: Indians -112

Remember, if you sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today, you can bet the games above risk-free up to $1000. If you were to combine these bets into a parlay, you could win $2,713 (+271 odds). Worst case scenario is that the bet loses and FanDuel Sportsbook refunds your wager in site credit. Lock in this offer by clicking here.

Written by OutKick Bets

One Comment

Leave a Reply

Leave a Reply