Fade Or Follow The Public: Monday’s NHL Game

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The number of games is really starting to dwindle; there are only two NHL series left and two NBA series left. I’ve written about the Lightning Islanders series twice, and I’ve followed and faded the public in each game. I followed the public with the Lightning -190 in game two, faded the public with -1.5 +150, and then faded the public in game three when I bet on the Islanders +118. I’ll take 2-1 with a +150 bet sprinkled in there. Let’s hope that this series stays fruitful as we dive into game five tonight.

Islanders (+156) vs. Lightning (-186) 8:15 p.m. ET

This series has been awesome, and tonight is a big game for either team, with the series being tied 2-2. The winner of game five goes onto win the series 72.8% of the time. The public believes that the Lightning will win this game as 73% of bets are on Tampa Bay’s Moneyline.

New York won 3-2 in Long Island in game four, with Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, and Matt Martin scoring a goal. Of course, Kucherov scored a point with an assist, Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point scored a goal in the loss. For the Lightning, Kucherov has been amazing these entire playoffs since he leads them in points with 24. For the Islanders, they aren’t being led by one player, but instead multiple players. Josh Bailey and Jean Gabriel Pageau lead the Islanders with 13 points, Mathew Barzal and Anthony Beauvillier have 12 points.

After a loss, the Lightning has been great. In these playoffs, the Lightning lost game three vs. Florida, then won game four 6-2, they lost game five and then won game six 4-0. In the series versus Carolina, they lost game three and then won game four 6-4. Then in the series versus the Islanders, they lost game one and then won game two 4-2. If you believe that the Lightning will win game five, it’ll be worth it to throw some money on their puck line as well, which is currently at -1.5 +152. The public believes that the Lightning will not cover the spread as 72% of bets are on the Islanders puck line.

Tampa Bay has won six out of their nine games by at least two goals in these playoffs. As you saw above, after a loss, Tampa wins by at least two in every game these playoffs. For the Islanders, ten out of their fifteen losses against the Lightning have been by at least two goals.

While in Tampa Bay, the Lightning is 46-19 at home in their last 65 games. In these playoffs, they are 4-3 while home, compared to the Islanders, who are 5-2 while on the road. In their last thirteen games, though, the Islanders are 4-9 while playing in Tampa Bay, and in this series, the Lightning is 1-1 in Tampa Bay against the Islanders.

If something is working, why not keep it going. The Lightning is great after a loss, great while playing in Tampa Bay, and great at winning by at least two goals, especially after a loss. This is why I’m following and fading the public with my picks tonight.

The pick: Lightning -186 and Lightning -1.5 +152

Written by David Lawrence

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