Fade Or Follow The Public: Monday’s NBA Games

Knicks vs. Nets (-5.5) 7:00 p.m. ET

The Nets are looking to sweep the Knicks in the battle for New York. The Knicks have been the biggest surprise of the season, as they sit at the 7th seed 25-25. The Nets are one of the favorites to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals because they keep loading their team with former All-Stars. Instead of deciding which team will cover the spread, we will look at the total set at 217.5 points. The public believes that this will be a high-scoring game, as 75% of bets are over. Gambling on the Knicks under has been very profitable, as it’s gone 31-19. This is mostly due to the Knicks’ excellent defense, which ranks 3rd in defensive rating and 1st in PPG allowed. To go along with their outstanding defense, they have a terrible offense. The Knicks offensive rating is 21st, 22nd in FGM, 23rd in 3-PM, and dead last in pace.

Now the Nets are the complete opposite of the Knicks. They have a great offense ranked 2nd in offensive rating and 25th in defensive rating. The Nets will be without Kevin Durant and James Harden. I also don’t see Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge playing much, as they both played over 20 minutes last night. The Nets’ under is 5-4 after back-to-backs. The Knicks and Nets have played twice this season and have averaged 227 points. I think that this game won’t be as high scoring, so I’m fading the public with this pick. 

The pick: Under 218.5 points   

Jazz vs. Mavericks (+4.5) 7:00 p.m. ET 

This could be a potential first-round matchup, as the Jazz are the best team in the league. They are 3.5 games ahead of Phoenix for the first seed in the West. The Mavs, on the other hand, have been up and down this entire season. They are currently the 7th seed and are 2.5 games ahead of the Grizzlies. To avoid the play-in tournament, Dallas needs to jump ahead of Portland. The public believes that Utah will cover this spread, as 60% of bets are on the Jazz spread. The Mavs and Jazz have played twice this season. Utah won the first game 120-101 and covered the -4. In their second game, Utah won again 116-104 and covered the -2. The Jazz are the best team ATS as they have gone 31-18 ATS, compared to Dallas, which is 24-24 ATS. The Jazz are on a nine-game win streak, and after a win, the Jazz are 25-12 ATS. The Jazz are great both offensively and defensively. The Jazz have the best offensive rating in the league and the 4th best defensive rating. They are led by Donovan Mitchell but are excellent all-around. This Jazz team reminds me of the 2014-2015 Hawks as both teams were ridiculously deep. Hopefully, this Jazz team has a little more success than that Hawks team. I believe that this Jazz team is much better than the Mavericks. Even though the Mavericks might have the better player in Luka, Jazz’s overall team is better. I’m following the public with this pick.  

The pick: Jazz -4.5

Suns vs. Rockets (+14.5) 8:00 p.m. ET

The struggles for the Rockets are going to continue, as they go up against the red hot Suns. The Suns are fighting for the No. 1 seed and are only 3.5 games behind Utah. The Rockets, on the other hand, are fighting for the worst record. They are a game and a half above the bottom-feeding Timberwolves. This game two years ago would’ve been flipped, as the Rockets used to be the powerhouse and the Suns were the joke of the league. The tables have quickly turned, but 77% of the public believes that the Suns will cover this massive spread. The Rockets and Suns’ last game couldn’t have been more different. Houston took on the Celtics and lost 102-118; the Suns blew the Thunder out, 140-103. Phoenix is the best team this year for covering the spread as they have gone 32-16 ATS, and the Rockets are the worst going 15-34 ATS. As away favorites, the Suns are 10-7 ATS, and as home underdogs, the Rockets are 2-13 ATS. There’s a reason why this spread is so big. The Suns have the 7th best offensive rating and the 5th defensive rating, compared to Houston, which has the 27th offensive rating and the 15th defensive rating. This is a game that you don’t overthink. It’s normal to see huge blowouts in the NBA, and I believe that this game will be one. So I’m following the public.    

The pick: Suns -14.5