Fade Or Follow The Public: Monday’s NBA Games

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Wizards +10.5 vs. Jazz -10.5 9:00 p.m. ET

These two teams couldn’t be more different. The Wizards are fighting for the number one overall pick since they are 12th in the East. The Jazz are battling to keep the number one playoff seed in the West with a 40-13 record. The public thinks that the Jazz will cover this huge spread as 54% of picks are on Utah’s spread. The Wizards could be without Bradley Beal since he is dealing with hip and back issues. If Beal doesn’t play, I would hammer Russell Westbrook’s over in all of his stats. The Wizards did win Friday’s game against the Warriors, but they are 1-6 in their last 7 games. In their six losses, they have lost by an average of 14 points. Washington is 26-26 ATS for the season, compared to the Jazz, the second-best in the league with a 33-20 record ATS. These two teams’ ATS record isn’t the only huge difference, but they are wildly far apart in every stat. The Jazz have the 2nd best offensive rating, 10th in field goals made, 1st in three-pointers made, and 4th in three-point percentage. Compared to the Wizards, who have the 24th best offense rating, 14th in field goals made, 28th in three-pointers made as well as three-pointer percentage. The Jazz have the 4th best defensive rating compared to the Wizards, who have the 26th defensive rating. I believe that the woes for the Wizards will continue, and the Jazz will take care of business tonight and blow out a bad team; this is why I’m following the public.    

The pick: Jazz -10.5

Kings +1.5 vs. Pelicans -1.5 9:15 p.m. ET

These are two bad teams fighting to get their way into the play-in game. So far, the Pelicans (24-29) are only one game back from the Warriors to get into the play-in game. The Kings are currently 12th in the West, but they are only three games from the Warriors for the 10th seed. The public believes that the Pelicans are the better bad team as 76% of picks are on the Pelicans spread. New Orleans is on a two-game win streak, and Zion has been amazing during this streak. In his last two games, Zion has scored 37 and 38 points. The Kings are on a six-game losing streak and have lost by an average of 12.3 points. The total for this game is set at an insane amount of points at 237. The public is torn on whether to pick the over or under as 51% of picks are on the over. There’s a reason why the total is set at such a high number. Both of these teams have great offenses and horrible defenses. New Orleans’ offensive rating is 9th in the league, 7th in field goals made, 6th in field goal percentage, and 8th in points per game. Sacramento’s offensive rating is 12th, 5th in field goals made, and 7th in field goal percentage. The Pelicans’ defensive rating is 28th in the league, 27th in points per game allowed, and 30th in 3-point percentage allowed. Compared to the Kings, whose defensive rating is dead last in the league, 29th in points per game allowed, and last in field goal percentage allowed. I believe that Zion will have another great game tonight, and the Kings are going to extend their losing streak to 7 games. So I’m following the public with both my pick for the spread and the total.   

The pick: Pelicans -1.5, and Over 237 points

Written by OutKick Bets


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