Fade Or Follow The Public: MLB Opening Day

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It’s finally the Opening Day for baseball, and unlike last year, this Opening Day is back to its standard time of the year. Everything isn’t back to normal yet, as the Nationals and Mets game was canceled, but at least it’s on the right track. With Steve Cohan now owning the Mets and trading and extending Francis Lindor, they look to be a brand new team. Let’s take a look at the night games, and see whether we want to fade or follow the public.   

White Sox (-115) vs. Angels (+105) 10:05 p.m. ET

The public loves the White Sox tonight, as 79% of the bets are on Chicago’s MoneyLine. The White Sox are among the best teams in the American League and are the favorite to win the Central Divison at -125. The White Sox are led by last year’s MVP Jose Abreu and superstar pitcher Lucas Giolito, who finished 7th in the AL Cy Young Award. Giolito is taking the mound tonight. Last year, he had an impressive road record going 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Chicago is going against Los Angeles; the Angles have wasted an amazing career from Mike Trout. Mike Trout has won 3 MVPs, but he has only three playoff games, all in 2014. A huge reason for their struggles has been their pitching. Last year, they finished 25th in ERA, while their offense finished 9th in runs and 12th in slugging. The White Sox finished last year 35-25, one game behind the division. They made the playoffs and lost in the first round against Oakland. Chicago finished 6th in ERA, 3rd in HR and 5th in slugging last year. This might be the only time you get the White Sox at these odds while playing a far inferior opponent. I’m following the public with this pick.        

The pick: Chicago White Sox -115

Astros (-103) vs. Athletics (-105) 10:07 p.m. ET 

The public loves Houston here, as 61% are on the Astros MoneyLine. The Astros fell off last year, finishing 17th in wRG+ and 18th in both wOBA and ISO. From 2017-2019, they were ranked 1st in both wRC+ and wOBA and 3rd in ISO. It largely has to do with the entire Astros organization being cheaters and using technology to steal signs. The Astros are without one of their best players, having lost George Springer to the Blue Jays. Houston went 9-23 while on the road with a -37 run differential. Astros finished last year 13th in ERA, 22nd in on-base percentage, and 19th in HR. The A’s, by comparison, have great pitching, finishing 5th in ERA. Their offense also finished 15th in RBI. On opening night, I can’t root for the Astros, who are cheaters and liars. Plus, I think that Houston will continue to struggle and that the A’s will win this game. I’m fading the public with this pick.

The pick: Oakland Athletics -105 

Written by OutKick Bets

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