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Fade Or Follow The Public: Friday’s MLB Games

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Cubs (+108) vs. Reds (-126) 7:11 p.m. ET

It’s the battle of streakiness tonight as Chicago and Cincinnati face off tonight. The Reds are one of the hottest offenses in the league since being 2nd in runs scored. With an offense that great, they should be better than their 11-13 record, but one night they will score 8 runs, and the next night they will fail to score a single run. Not to mention their pitching staff has let them down; they are 27th in ERA. The Cubs championship window is being slammed in their face since being dead last in the NL Central with an 11-14 record. They will need to get things back on track if they have any hope of making the playoffs. The public thinks that they will since 54% of picks are on the Cubs to win.

The Reds are 2-8 in their last ten games, and the Reds hope that Wade Miley will get them back on track. So far in 2021, Miley is 2-2 in four games with a 2.45 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. For the Cubs, the veteran Jake Arrieta is taking the mound. It seems like all Arrieta needed to do to become good again was be reunited with his old Chicago teammates. So far in 2021, Arrieta is 3-2 in five games, with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP. The most crucial stat for Miley is that he is a left-handed pitcher, and the Cubs hit great against southpaws. The Cubs have a .958 OPS against lefties and are 6-1 in their last seven games against a left-handed starting pitcher. I’m following the public; I’m putting my belief in Arrieta and the Cubs being great against lefties. 

The pick: Cubs +108

Indians (-140) vs. White Sox (+126) 8:11p.m. ET

The White Sox are looking to keep their winning streak going after winning the doubleheader against the Tigers yesterday. The Indians are looking to bounce back after getting blown out by the Twins 2-10 on Wednesday. Instead of picking a side, I’ll be looking at the total set at 6.5 runs. The public believes that 6.5 runs are way too low as 71% of picks are on the over. 

For the Indians, the former CY Young winner will take the mound in Shane Bieber. So far, in 2021, Bieber is 2-2 in five games with a 2.48 ERA and 0.936 WHIP. For the White Sox, Dallas Keuchel is starting. So far, in 2021, Keuchel is 1-0 in five games with a 4.32 ERA and 1.320 WHIP. The most important stat for Keuchel is that he is a left-handed pitcher, and the Indians have struggled against lefties. In their last six games, Cleveland is 1-5 against starting left-hand pitchers. The reason for their blemished record is because the Indians struggle to produce runs. Cleveland has had less than two runs in 3 out of 5 of Bieber’s starts. They are 27th in the league for runs, 29th in hits, and T6th for home runs. It’s the opposite for the White Sox, who have a great offense; they are 4th in runs, T3rd for hits, and T11th for home runs. Chicago’s offense disappeared the last time they faced Bieber. They only managed 3 hits, with 0 runs scored, and struck out 11 times. I’m fading the public tonight since I believe in Shane Bieber having another great night against the White Sox and the Indian’s offense to keep struggling.  

The pick: Under 6.5 runs

Written by OutKick Bets

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