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The Los Angeles Dodgers (1-0) host the San Diego Padres (1-0) Wednesday for Game 2 of their National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium.
L.A. jumped on San Diego starting RHP Mike Clevinger early with a 5-run lead after the 3rd inning and held on for a 5-3 Game 1 victory.
Both ball clubs send their aces to the hill: Padres RHP Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) vs. Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw (12-3, 2.28 ERA).
We are ignoring the Padres-Dodgers head-to-head record and all the pro-L.A. stats and betting San Diego to at least cover the Run Line (RL) in Game 2.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
BET: Padres +1.5 (-130) and ‘Sprinkle’ on San Diego’s ML (+160)
There isn’t a lot of analysis to go on here because all the metrics heavily skew in favor of the Dodgers who’ve pummeled the Padres over the last decade.
However, given how well Darvish has pitched recently and Kershaw’s less-than-dominant playoff history, the Dodgers are too expensive in this spot.
It’s actually a little overstated how poorly Kershaw has pitched in the postseason. But, Darvish’s incredible 2022 has flown under the radar as well.
All of Darvish’s pitching numbers improved year over year and he’s been lights out down the stretch. Since the beginning of September, Darvish is 5-1 in six starts with a 1.85 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 10.2 K/9.
Also, Darvish’s K-rate (31.5-27.5%) and expected slugging percentage (.379-.351) are better vs. active Dodgers batters than Kershaw against current Padres, according to Statcast.
No one is arguing about who’s the better pitcher. But, there’s no way Kershaw should be more than a -150 favorite over Darvish.
Sketchy line movement
According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the action is on L.A.’s RL but the line is moving towards San Diego on the consensus. This “reverse line movement” is a red flag because oddsmakers typically adjust betting lines based on their liquidity.
Furthermore, one of the sharpest shops in the world — Pinnacle Sportsbook (Pinny) — lists the Dodgers’ RL at +121 and their ML at -176.
Pinny is known to book the biggest bets and is considered a “market-making” oddsmaker whose lines sportsbooks copy. The Padres being pricier at their shop suggests San Diego is the sharp side.
Finally, aside from getting destroyed by the Dodgers, the Padres have been profitable as underdogs. San Diego is 25-14 RL as road underdogs this season with the second-best return on investment (+19.0%).
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook, BET the SAN DIEGO PADRES +1.5 (-130) and SPRINKLE on SAN DIEGO‘s ML (+160). The Padres’ RL is my favorite bet in Game 2 and I’d play it down to -140.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.