Fade Heavy Line Movement: BET Under In Seahawks, Saints
The Seattle Seahawks (2-2) head to the Caesars Superdome Sunday to play the New Orleans Saints (1-3) in Week 5. There should be some regression forthcoming for Seattle’s offense and New Orleans’ defense needs to step up and help out the banged-up offense.
In Week 4, Seattle upset the Lions 48-45 in Detroit, clearing the 47.5-point total by 45.5 points. NOLA lost to the Minnesota Vikings 28-25 in London last week. Those teams went Over the total by 11.5 points but 23 of those points were scored in a crazy fourth quarter.
Essentially, the plan is to fade the market's overreaction to Week 4's results. Neither offense is as good as they looked last week and this is a tough travel spot for both teams.
BET the UNDER 46 in SEAHAWKS-SAINTS (-107) at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Betting Details (PointsBet)
BET: UNDER 46 (-107), all the way down to 44.5
New Orleans Saints pass rusher Cameron Jordan. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Speaking of "regression", Seahawks QB Geno Smith is going to come back down to earth eventually. Look, I'm not here to dump on Smith but his completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) is nearly double the next closest guy, per NFL Next Gen Stats. This just isn't sustainable.
The QB behind Smith in CPOE is Saints QB Jameis Winston coincidentally, but most likely won't be playing in this game.
Saints backup QB Andy Dalton played fine in London last week. But, he's your prototypical game manager at QB.
Seahawks-Saints 'Rock-Fight'
Both have defensive-minded coaches who are prone to calling a slow-paced game. The Saints have the slowest neutral-situation pace in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. The Seahawks have the 19th-fastest neutral-situation pace and the 24th-fastest regular pace.
The Saints will play at their usual slow pace (more on that below) and Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll will follow suit. Carroll loves to establish the run and Seattle RB Rashaad Penny had a breakout game last week vs. the Lions (17 carries for 151 rushing yards with two TDs).
NOLA's injury report suggests a more run-heavy offensive scheme. The Saints will most likely be without starting QB Jameis Winston and WR Michael Thomas.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara is trending toward playing Sunday after missing Weeks 2 and 4 with an injury. With a backup QB under center and a missing No. 1 WR, doesn't that mean the Saints will give Kamara a lot of touches?
Situationally, I see a lower-scoring affair in Seahawks-Saints. These teams met last year and New Orleans won 13-10. Winston started for the Saints and Smith was under center for the Seahawks.
Also, Seattle is 1-4 to the Under with a -6.4 total margin as a road underdog in its second-straight road game over the last five seasons.
The market has 'recency bias'
According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the money for this game is on the Over. This action has pushed the Seahawks-Saints total up from a 41-point opener to the current number.
Seattle torched a terrible Detroit defense and NOLA's offense had a pulse last week vs. an overrated Minnesota defense. The case for the Over is flimsy and I'm fading this lopsided market.
Head to PointsBet Sportsbook and BET the UNDER 46 SEAHAWKS-SAINTS (-107), all the way down to 44.5.