If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. We’re running it back and BETTING the ATLANTA BRAVES (+115) at home in their 3-game series opener with the New York Mets (-135) Friday.
It’s 2nd meeting of the season for Braves and Mets aces: ATL LHP Max Fried (13-7, 2.50 ERA) vs. N.Y. RHP Jacob deGrom (5-3, 2.93 ERA).
Mets-Braves is MLB’s most important series this weekend. N.Y. (98-58) has a 1-game lead over ATL (97-59) in the NL East race with eight remaining. The Mets lead the season series with the Braves 9-7 but has a -9 run differential in those meetings (76-67).
ATL is the play because N.Y. with deGrom on the mound are always the public play, Fried is underrated and the Braves have edges in the bullpen and hitting departments.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Mets (-135), BRAVES (+115)
- Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+145), Braves +1.5 (-170)
- Total (O/U): — 6.5 — O: -105, U: -115
Atlanta is a muscle memory bet
You auto-bet Fried whenever he’s a home ‘dog. I don’t care if he’s facing deGrom. In fact, the Braves are 5-1 straight up (SU) as home ‘dogs in Fried’s career as a starter and a +72.8% return on investment (ROI).
Also, Fried beat deGrom in ATL 3-2 back on Aug. 18th. Fried and deGrom faced the same number of batters (25) but Fried gave up fewer earned runs (3-2) and hits (5-4).
Fried heats up in the fall
For his career following the All-Star break, Fried’s winning percentage, ERA, WHIP, K/BB rate, opposing slash line all improve substantially. ATL is 20-10 SU when Fried starts from September on with a +21.7% ROI.
Fried also steps up at home vs. tough competition. The Braves are 25-5 SU in ATL during Fried’s career against teams with a winning record. ATL has a +2.3 margin of victory and +46.6% ROI in those games.
Braves have better relief pitching
Atlanta’s bullpen-WAR is nearly double N.Y.’s (7.3-3.9), according to FanGraphs. The Braves relievers has a better ERA, WHIP, HR/9 rate, hard-hit rate and K/BB rate than the Mets relievers.
ATL’s lineup is better vs. lefties than N.Y. vs. righties
The Braves score more runs per 9 against left-handed pitching than the Mets do against right-handed pitching. ATL’s lineup grades higher in several advanced pitching stats vs. lefties than N.Y. vs. righties including wOBA, ISO and hard-hit rate.
BET the ATLANTA BRAVES (+115) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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