‘Fade’ Brewers, Woodruff Wednesday; BET Cardinals, Quintana

There’s an argument to be made that the Milwaukee Brewers (82-72) have a motivation edge over the St. Louis Cardinals (90-65) Wednesday in the 2nd of their 3-game series at American Family Field.

STL clinched the NL Central Tuesday with a 6-2 victory over MIL but the Brew Crew is 1.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final NL wild-card berth.

However, MIL’s starter Wednesday — RHP Brandon Woodruff (12-4, 3.18) — historically struggles vs. the Cardinals. Whereas STL starting LHP Jose Quintana has been lights out in MIL.

BET the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+135) pile on against a dejected Brew Crew Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): CARDINALS (+135), Brewers (-155)
  • Run Line (RL): Cardinals +1.5 (-170), Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Total (O/U) — 7 — O: -120, U: +100
Cardinals’ starter Jose Quintana. (Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Cardinals’ Quintana = Underrated; Brewers’ Woodruff = Overrated

MLB talking heads projected MIL’s rotation to be among the best 1-2 combination with Woodruff following reigning NL Cy Young winner, RHP Corbin Burnes.

Woodruff hasn’t upheld his end of the bargain. His stats are impressive but Woodruff doesn’t pitch well against quality competition.

The Brewers are just 13-14 straight up (SU) in Woodruff’s starts vs. teams with a winning record since 2020 and a -16.8% return on investment (ROI). MIL is just 3-5 SU vs. the Cardinals with a -39.6% ROI when Woodruff starts over that span.

Quintana is familiar with the Brewers after spending most of his career in the NL Central and steps up against tough teams.

His teams are 6-1 SU since 2018 when Quintana starts in MIL with a +3.00 margin of victory (MoV) and +70.7% ROI while pitching for the Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. Quintana’s teams are 9-9 SU vs. winning teams with a +0.44 MoV and +27.2% ROI over the last three seasons.

Finally, MIL’s lineup ranks 24th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching, 24th in wOBA, 18th in BB/K rate and 23rd in ISO, according to FanGraphs. The Brewers are scoring just 3.86 runs per nine against lefties.

The bottom line is we are getting a good price on the Cardinals here because of the public perception that Woodruff is an All-Star-caliber pitcher and Quintana is slept on.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (+135). I’d play STL’s ML all the way down to +120. That said, let’s wait until closer to the first pitch in case the Cardinals sit their starters and because most of the market is betting on the Brewers.

Odds from DraftKings Sportbook on Wednesday, Sept. 28 as of 11:10 a.m. ET

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Written by Geoff Clark

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