Fade Blue Jays, Berrios In Baltimore Monday: BET Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays (89-69) starting RHP Jose Berrios (11-7, 5.37 ERA) has been awful on the road this year. The Baltimore Orioles (81-77) host the Blue Jays Monday in Oriole Park at Camden Yards and this is our last chance to profit off of Berrios’ road struggles in the regular season.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays (-125), ORIOLES (+105)
  • Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Orioles +1.5 (-145)
  • Total (O/U) — 7.5 — O: +100, U: -120

BET: Orioles (+105) ML, all the way up to -105

(Elsa/Getty Images)

Berrios 4-5 on the road with a 6.75 ERA (4.24 home ERA), 1.57 WHIP (1.33 road WHIP) and 18 HRs allowed, 7 more HRs in nearly 17 fewer innings on the road. Also, the Blue Jays are 0-3 when Berrios starts with a total of 7.5 or lower and a -3.7 margin of victory (MoV).

Toronto is almost locked into the 1st AL wild-card seed. The Blue Jays might coast through their final regular-season series vs. the Orioles. This explains the reverse line movement headed towards Baltimore in the betting market.

Per VSIN, roughly 75% of the money at DraftKings Sportbooks is on Toronto. But, the Blue Jays have been lowered from a -130 ML favorite down to the current number. This has to be “sharp line movement” because who’s betting a Blue Jays-Orioles on a Monday during football season?

Orioles starting RHP Dean Kremer (8-6, 3.17 ERA) has much better form on short-rest and in Baltimore. The Orioles are 7-2 in Kremer’s home starts this season and Kremer has a 2.67 home ERA (3.63 road ERA). Also, Kremer is 3-1 on 4 days of rest with a 1.44 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

BET the BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+105) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Oct. 3 at 11:45 a.m. ET.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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