F5 Moneyline Play in Game 4

Braves vs. Phillies, Game 4, 2:07 ET

Well, my futures are done on this series, but I still think we have the potential to take some money so I’m focusing in on this game. Yesterday, the Phillies were able to get to a rusty Spencer Strider and take Game 3. Now they are just one win away from reaching the Championship series. What stinks for me personally is I believed in the Phillies to start the year. I went away from that after they played so inconsistently.

The Braves need Charlie Morton to be the dominant playoff pitcher he once was. He certainly has his fair share of experience in big games having pitched for the Rays, the Astros, and even the Braves last year in the World Series. Now they need him more than ever. To save them from elimination and bring the series back to Atlanta where we’d likely see Zack Wheeler and Max Fried pitching. Morton on the season has had his struggles, and a lot of those came on the road. In 15 road stats, Morton has a 5.72 ERA. To make matters worse, he had a tough September and October, going just 31.2 innings over six starts and allowing 19 earned runs. It gets a bit uglier, too. Against Philadelphia, he has six stats and has allowed 31 hits and 16 earned runs over 26.1 innings. In Philly was where most of the damage happened, too. He only covered 15.1 innings over three starts and allowed 12 earned runs there. If you’re looking for the silver lining, here it is: The Braves won two of the three starts Morton had at the Phillies.

Noah Syndergaard is looking to close out the series after great pitching performances by Wheeler, Nola, and even Ranger Suarez. If you went into this series (like me) thinking that a team was going to have a great pitching performance, you’d have to have looked towards the Braves. They’ve fallen short, and the Phillies have stepped up. Syndergaard hasn’t been phenomenal anywhere this year outside of Los Angeles. He’s been decent since coming over at the deadline, but he is what you’d expect a fourth starter to be: inconsistent. He has exactly one inning pitched against the Braves this season and it came in these playoffs just three days ago. Will he have a shorter leash and then have this game turned to the bullpen? Probably. That makes me a little nervous for the Phillies.

This is the highest total in any playoff game this year at 9 runs. Even with that total, I’d have to lean towards taking the over. Morton is a big game pitcher, but his stuff seems to be lacking this year. The only way I can look in this one is to take the Phillies through five innings. Yesterday, I mentioned whoever scored first would win, I don’t feel that way in this one. I think they are going to go back and forth for most of the game. I’m playing the Phillies because they have the momentum and confidence hopefully their bullpen doesn’t implode. Phillies through five at +100.

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Written by David Troy

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