Rockies vs. Mets, 1:40 ET
This really isn’t much of a competition in this game. You have a future Hall of Famer pitching at home against a guy that has struggled all season. If the Mets don’t win this game, you’re going to have to start asking questions. Luckily I have a different thought than playing a -325 moneyline.
German Marquez has exactly one start on the season where he didn’t allow at least one run. He has a total of three starts on the year where he has allowed one or fewer earned runs. Every other game, two or more. In his last outing? He allowed six earned runs in six innings. Now, is this a huge surprise? Not really, he does pitch half his starts at Coors Field. Even on the road though, he has a 4.11 ERA and has allowed 28 earned runs in 61.1 innings. The biggest difference is he is able to keep the ball in the yard on the road as opposed to at home (17 dingers allowed at Coors, just six on the road).
Mets hitters are batting about .200 against him, and they only have seven RBIs in 95 at-bats against Marquez. Still, when they faced him earlier this year, the Mets were clearly the better team and were able to win the game 5-1. They got 11 hits off of Marquez and only one was a home run. I expect something like this to continue.
My recommendation on this game is to take the over 7 runs. It is possible that Scherzer blanks the Rockies and the Mets win 4 or 5 to 0. But, I also think it is realistic that the Rockies score a couple of runs against him and we can get the over. If you are too worried about Scherzer pitching against the Rockies, I get it. Take the Mets team total over 4.5.
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