Diamondbacks vs. Rockies, 8:10 ET
If you’ve been reading these articles all season, you’ve probably recognized that I put a lot of emphasis on starting pitching for games. It is true, I think it is the most controllable factor to determine in the games. A bullpen can meltdown at any time, but you can usually find when a pitcher is worth playing for or against.
The Diamondbacks are a team that I’ve thought had great results as a team in their pitching staff. Zac Gallen is in discussion for the Cy Young, Merrill Kelly has printed us money, and Zach Davies has been fairly reliable, but one guy, in particular, has also been reliable for us from a betting standpoint: Madison Bumgarner. This guy used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, he is now somewhat a shell of himself. He is getting hit hard and hit often. Coming into the game, he has a 4.83 ERA, the second worst season-long ERA he has ever had – behind his first season in Arizona (and, in fairness to him, it was a shortened season). Still, at least he is reliable, he takes the ball every five days and tries to compete. He just happens to give up a lot of runs. The last two games that he has pitched against the Rockies ended with a total of 11 runs, both of which were in Arizona.
On the other side, Jose Urena also has not been good for the Rockies. He showed a bit of promise when he first came over in the trade from Milwaukee, but the wheels have fallen off a bit. In six starts at Coors Field, he has allowed 25 earned runs in 29 innings. That isn’t all a result of the home run ball, but he has allowed five of those as well. 23 of those earned runs come after his first two starts resulted in 12 innings of just two runs allowed. So, his last four have been pretty rough, to say the least. Against Arizona he has made two starts on the year, both were losses and the Diamondbacks scored six runs in both games.
There shouldn’t be any reason both teams can’t score runs in this one. Bumgarner has been reliable for a few each game at least, Urena has shown that he isn’t great at keeping people off of the scoreboard in Colorado. I like the over 11.
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