Videos by OutKick
Royals vs. Phillies, 1:35 ET
Splits are the easiest way to determine if a pitcher performs well in the most basic situations. You can get a quick glance at how they perform against specific teams, at home, on the road, in day games, night games, etc. I’ve made a lot of money with just this basic stat and following some of the trends. You can’t always blindly follow them, but other times, you can.
Today, as the Royals dig into the batter’s box against the Phillies, it will be one of those games where the splits for the pitchers will dictate the success of each club. The Royals, as we know, are not a good ballclub. Having won just about one of every three games, you can’t begin to back them outside of key spots or situations. This season, I’ve actually been pretty good about games where I’ve played them. And, this most recent play that I had on the Royals was with today’s starter as well. That was a somewhat lucky victory as they beat the Mets in extra innings. They were in the game, but the fact that they scored three in the bottom of the 10th after the Mets scored two was the luck. Now we once again have Zack Greinke on the hill for the Royals. Readers who have been down this path with me before, say it with me: “We bet on Greinke at home, but fade him on the road.” Why do we do that? Well, here are his splits: At home, Greinke is 1-4 with a 3.57 ERA – pretty respectable. On the road, he is 0-7 with a 7.40 ERA. In Greinke’s road outings, Kansas City is 1-9 and the record against the run line in his starts is 3-7.
On the other side of the diamond, we have the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that is looking to get as much momentum as possible and try to grab one of the Wild Card spots. With roughly half of the teams in the MLB making the playoffs now, this is probably harder than ever. So many fringe teams think they have a shot, which is what the league is looking for, competitive baseball all the way through September. Since June 1st, the club is 34-21 and that has happened with their offseason signing, Trea Turner, having the worst year of his career. Now we head back to the starting pitcher, Taijuan Walker. I mentioned the splits for Greinke, Walker’s splits are bad too, but he is more tolerable on the road than Zack. Walker has been very good at home this season with a 2.80 ERA overall. He wasn’t great in July at home, but he was very good in June, so August could be completely different altogether. Salvador Perez and Matt Duffy are the only ones to have plate appearances against Walker and they are 5-for-8 against him, but that doesn’t inspire much confidence in Walker or the Royals since it is such a small sample size.
The Royals won the game on Friday, and if they happen to win the Saturday game (this was written before it was played), I would bet even more that the Phillies don’t get swept by the Royals. I’m taking the Phillies on the run line in this game. Greinke on the road, and Walker at home will give us a few ways to put some extra money on this game. I’m taking the run line for the first five, the run line for the full game, and if I can get it at plus money, the Phillies/Phillies moneyline parlay prop.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024