Evaluating Point Spread Differences Between NFL QBs and Their Backups

Now that the NFL Draft is behind us, most relevant free agents have landed, and the schedule has been released, it’s time to start thinking about this upcoming football season. FOX Bet put together a nifty infographic about the difference in point spread between starting quarterbacks and their backups across the league:

A few stick out to me as surprises:

The difference between Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love seems low. I’m a Packers fan and I’m not one of those people who is certain that selecting Love is a disaster in the short or long term. That said, I don’t think they picked him with the idea that he could come in right now and compete. Rodgers’ performance has diminished a bit in recent years, but you still watch the Packers and realize they’d be a lot worse without him. I think this should be closer to 8.5 than 5.5.

It’s crazy that oddsmakers already think Tua Tagovailoa would make the Dolphins better than Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is one of those where I’m looking on the horizon of shortened training camps and perhaps less preseason games. I think it could be tricky for a rookie quarterback to come in and succeed right away. Fitzmagic is high variance, but I still think he’d be a better option to win a game tomorrow than a first-year QB.

Jimmy Garoppolo giving 6.5 points to Nick Mullens feels a tad high. In my opinion the difference between Rodgers and Love should be several points greater than the difference between Jimmy G and Mullens.

Written by Ryan Glasspiegel

Ryan Glasspiegel grew up in Connecticut, graduated from University of Wisconsin-Madison, and lives in Chicago. Before OutKick, he wrote for Sports Illustrated and The Big Lead. He enjoys expensive bourbon and cheap beer.