Don’t Overlook the Favorite for Offensive Player of the Year

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NFL Offensive Player of the Year is different than what you see out of the MVP award, it is possible that the player is the same person, but it isn’t always the case. Where we see the MVP typically go to a quarterback, seven of the past ten years have gone to a wide receiver or running back. With that in mind, let’s look at some options for us for the award.

Jonathan Taylor is the favorite and I’d argue that he is the most logical choice for the award. Taylor is often used and doesn’t really have any competition within his own team for touches. If the Colts are scoring, it is likely because Taylor either set them up for it, or he is running the ball in himself. Now with Matt Ryan under center, he might have even more opportunity as Ryan can use him as a check down and dump the ball off to him. At +1000, I think it is worth it to put a play on it. It might be “chalk” but sometimes chalk wins.

Deebo Samuel is another logical choice and also listed as a cofavorite with Taylor. Samuel does a little bit of everything for the 49ers and they look to create opportunities for him to get the hands on the ball. Still, I don’t see him getting into the endzone enough to make this happen. I also am concerned that the 49ers starting Trey Lance could be a problem. Lance can run the ball and so that does take away from Samuel for a little bit of the appeal. The three games that Lance played significant amounts of time in, Samuel does have four touchdowns in them, but in two of the three, he had under 75 receiving yards. The other one he had 156 yards, so who knows. I recognize the appeal, but I’m not playing it.

One person that has a lot of value is Christian McCaffrey. He has had two very bad injury-prone seasons. If he comes back and plays 17 games or even 15 or 16, he could easily win this. This award was made for him. He will get the touches if he is on the field, no question there. He also has the best of all the quarterbacks he’s ever played with. At +2500, I am making a small play while knowing that it could end up on the injured list rotting away.

My peer, Geoff Clark, also wrote about this award and he said he really likes Aaron Jones – I fully agree with him for the reasoning. I am not taking a ticket on it myself, but I do think there is a lot of value and a storyline where he can win the award. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jones lead the Packers in receptions, even if it won’t be receiving yards. He will still get some carries, but AJ Dillon does make me concerned that he will take some of Jones production away.

My final play is Alvin Kamara. Kamara has never won the award, but I do think his job gets a little easier now that Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston will be back in the fold. We know Kamara will get a fair share of rushes. We also know that he is involved in the passing game. If the Saints, a team that could surprise people, make a push for the division people may attribute a lot of it to the success of Kamara. I could see him leading the NFL in touchdowns and being top 10 in total yardage. At 60:1 this is absolutely worth a quarter or half unit to me.

Written by David Troy

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