Don’t Fall For The Trap: BET Padres In Game 3, NLDS

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The San Diego Padres (1-1) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (1-1) Friday at Petco Park for Game 3 of their National League Division Series and this game has “trap” written all over it.

L.A. dominated San Diego in the regular season with a 14-5 record and a +62 run differential. Considering this, the Dodgers feel cheap in this spot and are getting cheaper.

Betting Details (DraftKings)

Dodgers Tony Gonsolin (Harry How/Getty Images)

Dodgers’ Game 2 starter, RHP Tony Gonsolin (16-1, 2.14 ERA), was having Cy Young-type season before going to the IL with an injury to his throwing arm.

Gonsolin won both starts vs. San Diego this season, allowing just 1 earned run over 12 2/3 innings pitched (IP) with a 14/1 K/BB rate.

Padres Blake Snell (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Whereas Padres LHP Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38) had an up-and-down 2022 and couldn’t make out of the 4th inning of his NL Wild Card Series start vs. the New York Mets.

Snell is 0-1 vs. the Dodgers in three starts with a 3.86 ERA, 12 hits allowed and a 23/10 K/BB rate in 14 IP this season.

Per the box score, one of Snell’s weaknesses — BB% — surfaced against the Mets last week. He issued 6 BB’s in just 3 1/3 IP.

However, that’s misleading because the umpire was squeezing Snell and expanding the strikezone for N.Y.

‘Sharp’ money is backing Padres

According to VSIN, more than three-fourths of the money at DraftKings Sportsbook is on L.A.’s ML. Yet the Dodgers have gone from a -130 ML favorite down to the current number.

Obviously, this “reverse line movement” is suspicious because common sense suggests sportsbooks would adjusted the betting lines based on liability.

Based on the line movement, it appears that sharps are throwing out Snell’s last start and backing San Diego. As I mentioned earlier this postseason, I’ll buy whatever Snell stock people are selling.

Snell has a better chase rate, whiff rate, K%, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage than Gonsolin, per Statcast.

Finally, Snell has been locked in since the All-Star break (7-5 with a 2.19 ERA and 5.25 K/BB rate) and 3-2 at home vs. the Dodgers since joining the Padres last season.

Head to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the SAN DIEGO PADRES (+100) to win Game 3 of the NLDS.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Oct. 14 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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