Dolphins Can Keep it Close Against Buffalo

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Dolphins vs. Bills, 8:15 ET

At the start of this season both of these teams were the talk of the NFL. They even met and the Dolphins took the game – one that was pretty fun to watch. Now they are both still in a good spot and this has division title implications.

Miami has stumbled a bit in the last few weeks. The Dolphins are going to play their third consecutive road game and they haven’t looked good in either of their past two. Maybe they were focused on this game, but the California trip did them a lot of harm. They’ve only produced 17 points in each of their last two games. If there is one positive that came out of those past two games, it is that in the most recent one, the Chargers game, they only allowed 23 points. Their defense is coming around a bit lately, but with the offensive regression, I think this is going to be another struggle for the Dolphins. It is a terrible schedule spot as well which provides me even less confidence in Miami. They are going to have to find a way to score against the Bills defense that has been able to hold teams to 25 or fewer points in their last four games.

Ever since the breakdown against the Vikings, the Bills have been able to win four straight. And, as mentioned, their defense has improved lately. The offense of Buffalo is still not back to the high-powered approach that we saw to start the year, but they have put up at least 20 points in their past four games. That isn’t a ton for a team that is capable of dropping 30+ against anyone. This could be a big game from Josh Allen. Not only do the Bills need him to perform well, but he has an opportunity because the Dolphins secondary is not that good. In the first game, Allen was able to throw for 400 yards but had to attempt 63 passes. They will need a bit more balance on offense.

I like the Bills to win this game, but I’m not sure that they can cover the full seven points. Miami knows how important this game is and even if Buffalo loses the game they can still hold the top spot in the division because their record is better. I don’t expect Buffalo to lose, but I do expect Miami to put together a better effort than they have the past two games. I’m going to hold my nose here and take Miami. It isn’t a good schedule spot, Miami hasn’t looked great on offense or defense, but I have to take 7.5 points in this game. It is too high for a matchup between teams that are close in my power rankings. This also is the type of team that Buffalo struggles against.

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Written by David Troy

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