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The question posed in the subject line has two pretty obvious answers: yes, there are literally dozens of people that have a shot to be MVP. A more figurative reflection of that question is if anyone outside of Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes will actually have a real shot to win the MVP. The first half of this is just figuring out which team wins the championship. I’ve gone on the record saying I prefer the Chiefs. But, I’m going to list options for both teams.
Let’s start with some data. In the past 10 years, we’ve had six quarterbacks win the award, two defensive players (both were linebackers in case you care about that sort of thing) and two were wide receivers. If you want to find a running back that last won the award, it was Terrell Davis 25 years ago. In that same span, we’ve seen four defensive players win (three linebackers, one cornerback), one running back, five wide receivers, and 15 quarterbacks. Not much of a surprise here, but the quarterbacks are a big deal.
Jalen Hurts is at just +120 to win the MVP, I’m not going to bet it. Go ahead if you want, but you need the Eagles to win, which isn’t the issue. I’d rather just bet on them with the moneyline at worse odds, but I don’t need two things to happen (them winning and him winning). I do think Miles Sanders has some good value at +2200 and he is the guy that I would back if I was an Eagles supporter. I probably will play him even though I like the Chiefs as something of a hedge. The Chiefs defense is overlooked often because of how good the offense is, but they aren’t a terrible group. What I don’t expect is for the Eagles to spend a ton of time throwing the ball and giving the ball to Mahomes with a lot of time on the clock. I think they are going to rely on the running game quite a bit. The Chiefs are about middle of the pack against the pass and are better against the run, but part of that is due to teams needing to throw on them to keep up with the offense. I like Sanders in this. If he gets two touchdowns or something we can get a win at +2200.
On the Chiefs side, you have to imagine that Travis Kelce is the first person that people will think for winning the MVP that isn’t named Mahomes. Kelce is the favorite target, he’s talented enough to get things done for the Chiefs, but he also will get a ton of attention from the defense. The Eagles were the best team in the league against the pass this season. They had the benefit of facing the Giants, Commanders, and Cowboys (without Prescott once) in six of their games. In fact, I would argue they only faced three or four competent passing offenses all season. Green Bay might even be a stretch in that assumption. So, maybe the Eagles passing defense isn’t great and the Chiefs can exploit them. Kelce at +1000 should be a consideration. I also like Marquez Valdes-Scantling at +6000. He’s shown a bit of a connection the past few games with Mahomes. If he can get open for a couple of touchdowns, I think this is a good chance for him to steal the award. Mahomes would still be likely to get it over both of these guys, but there is at least a possibility.
My favorite bet is Chris Jones at +4000 to win the MVP. He is an absolute monster, and if he wreaks havoc against a really good offensive line for Philadelphia, you can see him winning this award. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him raising the trophy after a stat line of two sacks and seven or eight tackles. He might be the guy that makes the key play and at 40:1, he is absolutely worth a bet here.
Here is how I would bet it if I was using $100:
- Jones +4000 ($40)
- Kelce +1000 ($25)
- Valdez-Scantling +6000 ($20)
- Sanders +2200 ($15)
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024