Dodgers With Urias On The Bump In The Fall Is An Auto-Bet

As I predicted Tuesday, the San Diego Padres (86-68) upset the Los Angeles Dodgers (106-48) 4-3 Tuesday in their 3-game series opener at Petco Park.

The Dodgers start LHP Julio Urias (17-7, 2.25 ERA) to get them back on track Wednesday. Padres All-Star starting RHP Joe Musgrove (10-7, 3.12 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego.

Somehow Urias has flown under the radar despite leading MLB with 20 wins last season and having the best ERA in the NL.

Urias has the 3rd-best odds to win the NL Cy Young (+2500) at DraftKings Sportsbook. But, Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara has the award essentially locked up (-6000 to win NL Young).

BET the LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-145) at DraftKings Sportsbook because they have MLB’s most underrated starter on the mound and rake right-handed pitching.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline (ML): DODGERS (-145), Padres (+125)
  • Run Line (RL): Dodgers -1.5 (+125), Padres +1.5 (-145)
  • Total (O/U) — 7.5 — O: +100, U: -120
Julio Urias (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Urias dominates the Padres and post-All-Star break

Urias has a 91.7% career winning percentage (22-2) after the All-Star game. He has a career 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and a 0.53 HR/9 rate in the second halves of seasons. Urias’ slugging percentage allowed fell roughly 100 percentage points from the first to the second half of the season (.668-.569).

Also, the Dodgers are 6-0 straight up (SU) and RL in Urias’ starts from August on as -150 favorites or less with a +6.17 margin of victory (MoV) since 2020. L.A. is 20-2 SU and 18-4 RL vs. NL West teams in Urias starts from August on with a +4.41 MoV over that span.

More importantly, Urias owns the Padres. The Dodgers are 6-1 SU and RL vs. the Padres in Urias starts since 2020. Urias has won five consecutive starts against the Padres with a 1.20 ERA.

L.A.’s lineup is by far the most productive vs. right-handed pitching. The Dodgers rank 1st in wRC+, wOBA, ISO and 3rd in BB/K rate and 3rd in hard-hit rate against righties.

Finally, oddsmakers opened Wednesday’s Dodgers-Padres meeting with a bad number and a bunch of sharps hit it early. Per, L.A.’s ML opened at -120 and it was quickly steamed up to the current ML. We are getting to the party a little late on the Dodgers but Urias is money in these spots.

BET the LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-145) at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’d play L.A.’s ML all the up to -150. I’m staying away from the Dodgers’ RL because it’s not a big enough payout (+125).

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday, Sept. 28 at 10:15 a.m. ET.


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Written by Geoff Clark

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