Dodgers Should Coast in Game 1

Padres vs. Dodgers, Game 1 9:37 ET

The Dodgers won 111 games this season but all of that doesn’t matter if they can’t close out the World Series. I do think that they can and will, but anything can happen in baseball. The Padres are doing this entire season without one of their best players and looking to keep marching past. In order to do it, they will need to beat the Dodgers and either the Braves or Phillies. That’s getting a bit ahead of ourselves here though.

The Padres are sending Mike Clevinger to the mound. That’s not an ideal situation in my humble opinion. Clevinger on the season has been okay. He posted a 4.33 ERA for the entire season, but most of the damage that happened to him came in his road starts. On the road, he has a 5.46 ERA and has allowed 39 earned runs over 64.1 innings. His last three starts against the Dodgers have been particularly bad, too. In those three starts, he has allowed 14 earned runs over 13.1 innings. Two of those were on the road and he allowed five earned runs in both of those starts. He also isn’t pitching very well lately. Since the start of September, he has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his six starts. He only has three quality starts over his last 12 outings too.

Julio Urias was really good for the Dodgers most of the season, but he saved his best pitching for August and September. In his last 11 starts (one came in October), he has gone 65.1 innings he has allowed just nine earned runs. He has been very good with facing San Diego hitters this year, too. In four starts, he has allowed just four earned runs and covered 24 innings. For some reason, he has allowed 10 walks against them though. In only one home start against the Padres, he allowed one earned run and two hits over six innings. Since June, the Dodgers have won 17 of his 21 starts. Only three of those wins have been by one run.

I like the Dodgers to cover the run line today, but if I have to win by two and it isn’t plus money I don’t think it is worth it. I’m going to instead play the Dodgers/Dodgers moneyline parlay first five and full game at -120.

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Written by David Troy

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