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One of my MLB bets Tuesday involve perhaps the best team in baseball. The other is a basement dweller in MLB’s worst division (AL Central). But, hey, value is value and I have some work to do if I’m going to break even in baseball this year.
All I can say about my 2023 MLB betting season is “Thank god football is back”. As of Tuesday, September 5th, my 2023 MLB record is 68-70 and my betting balance is -8.0 units (u).
MLB Tuesday Tilts
Los Angeles Dodgers (84-52) at Miami Marlins (70-67)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: loanDepot park.
- Season series: The Dodgers lead 2-1.
Miami is fighting for a postseason berth while Los Angeles has pretty much locked up the 2023 NL West. The Marlins are a 0.5-game back of the 2nd NL wild card seed. The Dodgers are 14.0 games atop their division.
Los Angeles turns to ace LHP Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.48 ERA) Tuesday. Miami gives the ball to LHP Jesus Luzardo (9-8, 3.62 ERA). The Dodgers have a 3-phase edge over the Marlins in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
As road favorites in 2023 with Kershaw on the mound, the Dodgers are 6-3 straight up (SU) and Run Line (RL). They have the best RL record in August at 22-9 RL with a +34.6% return on investment.
Moreover, LA’s lineup is 4th this month in both wRC+ (134) and wOBA (.367) and 3rd in WAR (8.5), per FanGraphs. Miami’s lineup on the other hand is 25th in both wRC+ (85) and WAR (1.0) and 24th in wOBA (.298).
BET: 1 unit (u) on the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+120) RL at DraftKings Sportsbook (down to +105)
Chicago White Sox (53-85) at Kansas City Royals (43-96)
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET.
- Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium.
- Series: Chicago leads 1-0. The season series is tied 4-4.
It’s odd that Pregame.com is reporting more money is on Kansas City’s moneyline (ML) and more bets are on Chicago’s ML. Typically, this suggests the Pros are on the Royals and the public is backing the White Sox.
This is my most important betting angle here. These bullpens are equally bad, neither lineup hits righties well and both have been awful in August. Also, I’d argue the KC has an edge in Tuesday’s starting pitching duel.
Chicago’s starting RHP, Dylan Cease (6-7, 4.91 ERA) was a preseason AL Cy Young favorite. Royals starting RHP Brady Singer (8-10, 5.15 ERA) wasn’t even on the board. Cease is more well-known and could elicit public support in the betting market.
But, Singer pitches much better at home and extended rest. Singer’s home ERA (3.98) is nearly three runs lower than his road ERA (6.91). He last pitched on August 25th. On six or more days of rest this year, Singer is 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA, 0.911 WHIP, and 4.7 K/BB rate.
Cease has a 7.79 ERA over his last seven starts and is 1-3 in his last four visits to Kansas City. Singer has last back-to-back outings but that was against two of MLB’s hottest teams (Mariners and Cubs). I’m banking on Singer having a bounce-back outing Tuesday.
BET: 1.25u on Kansas City Royals (-125) ML at DraftKings (up to -135)
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