Dodgers Dominate Padres and Musgrove

Dodgers vs. Padres, 9:40 ET

It isn’t official, but the Padres should make the playoffs. They are also playing very good baseball right now. They are facing the Dodgers who have coasted to the league’s best record for the year and another 100-win season. They are still playing solid baseball and could potentially get to 110 wins on the year.

Julio Urias won’t win 20 games this year, but he can come close! Still, this season might actually be better than last year when he did win the 20 games. On the road, Urias has been very dominant. In 91.1 innings he has only allowed 21 earned runs. He still allows a lot of home runs, 10 on the road, but those have to mostly be solo homers as he isn’t giving up much else. August was outstanding for Urias – he post a 0.90 ERA, but September hasn’t been bad either. In September, he has allowed just five earned runs over 24.1 innings, clearly gearing up for the playoffs. He has been solid against the Padres, too. In three starts, he is averaging six innings per game and one home run allowed (four total earned runs allowed).

Joe Musgrove will likely be the second pitcher that the Padres turn to when the playoffs do start. If he can replicate what he did in the first half of the season, they might have a chance at a deep run. That isn’t to say his second half has been terrible, but he has six quality starts and six non-quality starts. Some of those are just due to him being pulled early – like his last start against the Cardinals where he only allowed one earned run over five innings. The Dodgers have had Musgrove’s number this year to a certain extent. In two starts, Musgrove has allowed seven earned runs over 12.1 innings. His most recent outing was at home and he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings.

The Dodgers clearly have the advantage in starters today. I think it is greater than a one-run victory for them too. Urias has been so good against them and Musgrove has struggled. I think it is virtually certain that the Dodgers win the first five innings so I’m willing to take them at -0.5 at +100. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a Dodgers/Dodgers parlay for first five and full game at +140.

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Written by David Troy

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