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The Brewers are now five games back of the Cardinals and have to start a series against the best team in baseball, the Dodgers. The Cardinals get to play against the Cubs, who are playing their best baseball of the season. Let’s find a play in today’s game.
Eric Lauer is not a name that will really ring a bell with you. He’s had a decent campaign, but most of that is due to some very strong home performances. At home, Lauer is keeping the runs down over ten starts and has a 2.64 ERA. The problem is he is pitching on the road, where he has a 4.48 ERA, he’s allowed 32 earned runs in 64.1 innings. He has also allowed 24 home runs on the year, 15 have come on the road, and 17 have come during night games. Dodgers Stadium isn’t known as a big home run park, but Lauer is allowing fly balls at a 2:1 rate to ground balls.
Julio Urias is going for the Dodgers and he is probably having the best season of his career. Not only does he have a 2.40 ERA, but he has a nine quality starts in his last 13 outings. This isn’t much of a statement, considering the Dodgers have won so many games, but they have won 15 of his 23 outings. That includes a stretch where they lost six of seven starts – he was good in them, but the Dodgers still lost six of his seven starts. Since that stretch, though, the Dodgers have 11 straight starts by Uruais. In the of them, they have won by more than one run.
This is an easy one to me. Lauer isn’t a good enough pitcher in this specific situation, and Urias and the Dodgers are clicking. I’m taking the Dodgers -1.5 at -120.
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