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I’d argue the Los Angeles Dodgers’ (90-41) most reliable starter down the stretch in recent seasons has been LHP Julio Urias (14-7, 2.32 ERA). Not only that but San Diego Padres (74-59) starting LHP Sean Manaea (7-7, 4.90 ERA) has been disappointing in his 1st season in the NL West.
L.A. is on a season-high 3-game losing skid entering Saturday and San Diego has won four straight. However, Urias is lights out post-All-Star break and is trending in a much better direction than Manea.
BET Urias breaks the LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 (-105) out of their slump Saturday at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Deets (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Padres (+180), Dodgers (-210)
- Run Line (RL): Padres +1.5 (-115), DODGERS -1.5 (-105)
Dodgers’ Urias 2nd-Half Dominance
I hit Urias’ 2022 NL Cy Young future (+2800) before the start of the season and it almost has no chance of cashing. However, it’s perplexing as to why. Urias is one of L.A.’s most reliable starters, and has been, for the current World Series favorites.
For instance, Urias is 19-2 with a 1.84 ERA in 51 2nd-half games (31 starts) for his career. His WHIP and K/BB rate both improve in the 2nd-half. Urias has only allowed nine home runs in 195 1/3 innings pitched (IP) for his career post-All-Star Game.
This season, Urias is 6-1 with a 1.05 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 4.78 K/BB rate in seven 2nd-half starts. On the other hand, Manaea is 2-3 in his last seven starts with a 7.29 ERA. Manaea has gotten smoked in two starts vs. the Dodgers this season (0-2 with 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 IP).
Furthermore, Urias’ pitching peripherals support his impressive but basic 2022 full-season stats. Urias grades in the 85th percentile or better in chase rate, hard-hit rate, exit velocity (EV) and expected ERA over wOBA, according to Statcast.
On top of that, there are other pro-Dodgers -1.5 handicapping factors to consider…
Other Dodgers -1.5 Betting Angles
L.A. has edges in both the bullpen and lineup matchups. The Dodgers relievers have a better WAR, ERA, FIP, EV, hard-hit rate and K/BB rate than the Padres, per FanGraphs. Also, L.A.’s lineup is better by wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate vs. lefties than San Diego’s against right-handed pitching.
Finally, there are situational trends backing an L.A. RL wager here. The Dodgers are 12-6 RL with a plus-28.4% return on investment and a 5.38-3.44 final margin in Urias starts after August since the beginning of 2021. Additionally, L.A. is 26-17 RL at home as favorites of -180 or greater this season.
BET the LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- A $105 bet on the Dodgers -1.5 pays a $100 profit if L.A. wins by 2 or more runs.
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