David Lawrence
Videos by OutKick
There are so many player props that it can be overwhelming. How are you supposed to know exactly how many rebounds, points, or 3s a player will make? This is why I’m here, to do all of that research, so you have a better idea of where to put your money. We went 5-4 on Monday’s NBA player props, and even though that’s only 55%, we did hit a +400 bet because Brook Lopez hit 2 threes. This puts my player props record at 12-9 with a +400 and +152 sprinkled in there.
Nuggets vs. Suns 9:30 p.m. ET
Player Points Match-bet Deandre Ayton (+186) vs. Michael Porter Jr (-245)
This bet is against two players who were drafted in the 2018 class. Ayton went No. 1, and Porter Jr fell to the 14th pick. Porter Jr was the No. 1 ranked recruit going into college and was thought to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. Back surgery and injuries made him fall to Denver. Looking at these two players, Porter Jr is a better scorer than Ayton, and that’s why he’s the heavy favorite. During these playoffs, Ayton has shown why he was the No. 1 pick and has shown how much he has improved. During the regular season, he averaged 14.4 points compared to the playoffs, where he is averaging 16.4 points. On the other hand, Porter Jr was better in the regular season, where he averaged 19, and during the playoffs, he is only averaging 18.3 points. In Game One, Ayton had 20 points in the Suns’ win, and Porter Jr had only 15 points. In the 4th quarter, Porter Jr didn’t play much because he was dealing with back tightness. Yesterday, it was reported that Porter Jr was questionable for Game Two because of back tightness. I believe that Ayton will have another great game and that Porter Jr will struggle and be in pain. So I’m picking Ayton to have more points than Porter Jr.
Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds +104
For the bet, I’m playing the numbers, and having positive odds is great. During Game One, he had 10 rebounds in 36 minutes. During the regular season, he averaged 10.5 boards, and during the playoffs, he is averaging 10.6 rebounds. The Nuggets this season ranked 19th in the league for getting defensive rebounds. There are going to be great chances for Ayton to get offensive rebounds tonight.
Devin Booker Over 28.5 Points -110
I bet that Booker would have over 29.5 points in Game One, and he finished with only 21 points. The Suns didn’t need Booker to score a lot since Bridges had 23, Ayton had 20, and Chris Paul had 21 points. These playoffs, when Phoenix is home, Booker is averaging 29 points. During the regular season, he averaged 25.6 points. In the playoffs, he increased his play and averaged 28.4 points. After the Suns have won in the playoffs, Booker has scored 31, 30, and 47 points. I think the Suns will need their star more tonight since their role players won’t contribute as much.
Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 Points -110
Last game, Jokic scored only 22 points while shooting 10-23 from the field. This is not what the MVP normally does, as he averaged 26.4 points on 56.6% from the field in the regular season. It was clear that the Suns’ game plan was to let Jokic score and not have him get his teams involved. During the regular season, he averaged 8.3 assists compared to Game One, where he had only 3 assists. He is averaging 31.4 points during these playoffs, and after a loss, he has scored 38 in both games.
Facundo Campazzo Over 4.5 Assists +118
This might be my favorite prop that I found. Last game, Campazzo finished with 6 assists. This bet is plus money because, during the regular season, he averaged only 3.6 assists during 21.9 minutes. With Jamal Murray being injured, Campazzo’s minutes have increased these playoffs. He is averaging 28.7 minutes played and 5.3 assists. With the Suns not double-teaming Jokic, other players will need to create. Who can create better than the point guard?
