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There are so many player props that it can be overwhelming. How are you supposed to know exactly how many rebounds, points, or 3s a player will make? This is why I’m here, to do all of that research, so you have a better idea of where to put your money. Yesterday was a bad day for props. I went 2-5 since nobody wanted to hit any threes. Paul George, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson hit only one three each. Instead of being like me and whiffing on player props, you could get easy money using FanDuel’s offer where if your first bet is on any NBA Moneyline, you will get +3000 odds with a $5 max bet. After yesterday’s horrendous day, my overall record is 24-27. Thankfully, I have +186, +400, +152, +200, +470, and +310 picks sprinkled in there to keep me afloat. Let’s try and get this train back on the tracks with today’s game.
Hawks vs. Bucks 8:30 p.m. ET
The Hawks have been the biggest surprise of these entire playoffs, and Trae Young leads them. Trae has loved being the villain traveling on the road and crushing fans’ hearts when they are at home. While on the road, he has scored 32, 30, 36, 35, 21, 39, and 21 points averaging 30.5 points. During the regular season, he averaged 25.3 points, and during these playoffs, he is averaging 29.1 points. Trae has made a statement in the first game, scoring 32, and 35 points in Game One of every series. I’m playing the statistics that Trae is amazing on the road and in Game Ones.
Middleton is a completely different player when the Bucks play at home. While Milwaukee is at home during these playoffs, Middleton has scored 27, 17, 35, 19, and 38 points. On the road, he has scored 22, 20, 13, 17, 25, and 23 points. Middleton averaged 20.4 points in the regular season and has upped his play in the playoffs, averaging 23.3 points. When the Bucks played the Hawks three times this season, Middleton has averaged 17.3 points. The Bucks will need Middleton not to disappear, and he hasn’t at home.
Brook Lopez used to live in the paint, but with Giannis, he has been pushed back to the three-point line. It doesn’t matter because he can still get buckets, regardless where he shoots. During the regular season, he averaged 12.3 points, and in the playoffs, he has stepped up his game averaging 13 points. He hasn’t played great at home, scoring 18, 7, 3, 6, and 8 points while in Milwaukee, but in Game Ones, he has played great, scoring 18 and 19 points. In the three games that the Bucks played against the Hawks, Lopez has averaged 14 points. With Clint Capela guarding Lopez, I see him stretching out the court and hurting the Hawks from mid-range and deep.
I already wrote about Lopez scoring more than 13 points, and for that to happen, he’ll need to score from deep. His shooting from deep has fallen off in the playoffs, as he is averaging 1.1 made threes compared to the regular season when he averaged 1.4. This prop has gone 2-1 since Lopez went 3-4, 0-3, and 3-5 from deep in the last three games. The Hawks will need to decide if they want Capela to stay in the paint and help defend or help out on Lopez from deep.
I see Jrue guarding Trae on defense, and with that, he’ll be in a position to get long boards when the Hawks shoot from deep. During the regular season, he averaged 4.5 boards, and during the playoffs, he is averaging 5.9 rebounds. In the last five games, this prop has gone 2-3, with Jrue grabbing 7, 8, 3, 3, and 4 rebounds. In the three games versus Hawks, Jrue averaged 4.7 rebounds.
Giannis averaged 11 rebounds during the regular season and greatly stepped up his play in the playoffs averaging 13.6 boards. This prop has gone 2-3, with Giannis grabbing 13, 17, 12, 12, and 14 boards in the last five games. The Bucks are great at getting rebounds as they were ranked 12th in offensive rebounds and 1st defensive rebounds. On the other hand, the Hawks were 10th in defensive rebounds. Regardless of who the Hawks put on Giannis, he will have the height and size advantage. John Collins is 6’9″ and 235 pounds, Clint Capela is 6’10” and 240 pounds compared to Giannis, who is 6’11” and 242 pounds. In the three games versus the Hawks, Giannis averaged 11 rebounds.
During the regular season, Giannis averaged 5.9 assists, and in the playoffs, his assists have fallen off as he has averaged 5.1. In the last seven games, this prop has gone 7-0, with Giannis getting 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, and 4 assists in last seven games. In the three games versus the Hawks this season, Giannis only averaged 4.7 assists.