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There are so many player props that it can be overwhelming. How are you supposed to know exactly how many rebounds, points, or 3s a player will make? This is why I’m here, to do all of that research, so you have a better idea of where to put your money. If you read my props for last Wednesday, you saw that my record wasn’t the best. I went 4-7, but I hit some great odds. George over 35.5 points +310, Seth over 3.5 and 4.5 made threes +200, and +470 made up for losing 7 bets. This is what makes player props great. My record for player props is at an even .500, 22-22, but I have +186, +400, +152,+200, +470, and +310 bets sprinkled in there. Let’s try to keep this streak going as we look at tonight’s game.
Clippers vs. Suns 9:00 p.m. ET
Reggie Jackson is a player who makes no sense. He will have 35 points in one game, and then the next game, he will have 9. This has been Jackson his entire career, from his days with OKC to Detroit and now with the Clippers. Last game, he had 24 points and shot 10-19 from the field. In the game before that, he had 22 points. Lately, Jackson has been playing way over his averages. During the regular season, he averaged 10.7 points, and in the playoffs, he has stepped up his game averaging 17.1 points. Without Kawhi, maybe Jackson has stepped up his play, but I think this run isn’t sustainable.
The Clippers play so small with Batum playing center, and Ayton can feast in the paint. Last game, he had 20 points against the Clippers. During the regular season, he averaged 14.4 points, and in the playoffs, he is averaging 15.6 points. Ayton has played great, averaging 16.2 points in Phoenix when the Suns are home, with 21, 22, and two 20 point games in there. The Suns will be without Chris Paul’s 16.4 points a game, and I see Ayton stepping up again and helping the Suns score.
In theory, Ayton should be feasting on rebounds with a 6’8″ Batum playing center, but he pulled down just 9 boards last game. This Clippers team is playing small ball, but they avoid giving up a ton of rebounds to the opposing center. During the Clippers and Jazz series, I kept on hitting Gobert’s under for rebounds, and I will be doing the same thing for Ayton.
Booker’s assist total is set at 6.5 with -134 odds. Instead of taking that, I’m trying to find more value. Last game Booker had 11 assists, mostly because Phoenix is without Chris Paul. Booker averaged only 4.3 assists during the regular season, and during these playoffs, he is averaging 5.4. Chris Paul averaged 8.9 assists this year, and without him, Booker will be the primary playmaker and ball handler. If the Suns want another victory, Booker will need to get his teammates involved.
With Kawhi out, George will need to step it up, and what better way to step up than to keep shooting from deep. In Game One, he had seven threes, but the sportsbooks don’t believe that will happen again, as they are giving us plus odds on his over. George averaged 3.2 made threes during the regular season, and in the playoffs, he is averaging 3. If the Clippers have any chance of winning tonight, George will have to score and score from deep.
Phoenix’s role players have really stepped up during these playoffs. Bridges has been amazing on defense and from deep. He had two threes during Game One of this series. During the regular season, he averaged 1.9 made threes, and in the playoffs, he is averaging 2 made threes a game. This prop has gone 8-3 during these playoffs, and I see it hitting again tonight.
I talked about Suns’ role players like Bridges stepping up, and Cam is another example. Unlike Bridges, Cam comes off the bench and provides great three-point shooting. He averaged 34.9% from deep and two made threes a game. He is averaging 1.5 made threes in these playoffs, and this prop has gone 6-5 during this playoff run. With Chris Paul out, the Suns will need Cam to play more minutes, and if he’s given the opportunity, I think he will make threes.
I don’t think I’ll go 7-0, but there’s always hope with gambling. Instead of figuring out all of these player props, you could instead hit on a +3000 bet. No, I’m not talking about taking Cam Payne to record a triple-double or a random player to score 50 points. Instead, you could use FanDuel’s offer that if your first bet is on an NBA Moneyline and you bet $5 on that team to win, you could win $150.