It was a rough night for player props on Wednesday. If you faded all of my picks, you made a killing since I went 1-6. Sometimes it doesn’t matter how great the information or research you have is. Sometimes, players don’t show up the way you predicted. The only prop that I hit was Trae Young scoring over 28.5 points. I had no worries about that prop, and looking back, I should’ve bet on all of his alternate points as well. Maybe I could’ve stopped the bleeding. That’s hindsight, which is a gambler’s worst enemy. Regardless, my overall record has taken a turn for the worse as it’s 25-33, but I do have a +186, +400, +152, +200, +470, +310 bet to keep me afloat. If I don’t start turning my picks around, those great picks aren’t going to keep me afloat for much longer. I’m taking it easier tonight with only four player props.
Hawks vs. Bucks 8:30 p.m. ET
This was the only bright spot on a horrendous day of gambling, so I might as well keep trying to steal that sunshine. Last game, Trae had 48 points when the Hawks stole Game One. Trae has been amazing at stomping on the hearts of home fans, as he has averaged 32.7 points on the road. This is greatly above his playoff average, which is 29.1 points, and his regular-season average was 25.3 points. If the Hawks want to keep on this magical run, they will need Trae to keep scoring, and what better way than ripping out Milwaukee fans’ hearts at home.
I’m already mad about this pick, and the game isn’t for hours. I believed in Middleton last game, and he didn’t show up. In Game One, he scored only 15 points on 6-23 shooting. I know you’re not supposed to blame one player for a loss, but Middleton was the reason the Bucks lost that game. Giannis had 34 points, and Jrue had 33 points. I’m playing the statistics that Middleton is much better while playing in Milwaukee, where he averages 25.1 points. In the Nets series, Middleton had a bad Game Two, where he scored only 17 points; he followed the next game scoring 35 points. Once again, he had a horrible Game Four, scorings only 19 points, but then followed up the next game scoring 25 points. Hopefully, Middleton can bounce back tonight, or I’ll never believe in him again.
After the last game, this bet looks preposterous since Capela pulled down 19 rebounds. That was an anomaly. In these playoffs, he has recorded over 13.5 rebounds only four times compared to the 13 times he has recorded under 13.5 rebounds. During the regular season, Capela was a beast for getting rebounds, as he averaged 14.3. During this playoff run, his rebound numbers have gone down since he is averaging 12.2. This is another bet where I’m playing the numbers and hoping that they don’t lie.
It hasn’t only been scoring where Trae has dominated; he has also been getting his teammates involved. Trae has averaged 10.5 assists during this magical run, which is over an assist more than he averaged during the regular season. If the Bucks are going to try and stop Trae from scoring, he will need to get his teammates involved. The 76ers did this to Trae in Game Two after he dropped 35 on them in Game One. In Game Two, Trae scored only 21 points but did have 11 assists. If you think the same thing will happen tonight, you can always ignore my over-pick and bet on Trae’s under for points.