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Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks, 4:10 ET
Yesterday, I opened my article with this whole thing about Rodney Dangerfield and his classic line. Today, I almost want to cut and paste it because this is the same situation two days in a row! Only this one I feel more excited about than I did about yesterday’s. The Red Sox take on the Diamondbacks in a game that has a clear favorite, even if the book doesn’t list it that way.
The Red Sox are playing surprisingly well overall. They are relying on their offense and it seems to be working out so far. The only issue is that they are in the AL East where arguably four teams are better than them (only three are above them in the standings right now). But, my point remains, in a different division, they compete for the title. In the AL, the best chance is probably the second Wild Card spot. The Diamondbacks are sitting in second place within their division with seven games above .500 under their belt. I would have to say this is a bit of a surprise to most. It surprises me even though I thought they would improve. The underperforming Padres have opened the door for Arizona to look solid. Even offensively the Diamondbacks are doing well. They actually are almost identical to the production of the Red Sox this season.
Even the pitching is fairly identical in terms of teams stats between the Red Sox and the Diamondbacks. However, the matchup today, is not identical. There is one clear favorite and that is the right-hander Merrill Kelly. I’ve made a lot of money on that man, especially last season, and I think we make more today. Kelly is pitching well. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but two of his starts this season. If Kelly can keep Justin Turner and Raimel Tapia under control against him, this should be an easy win. The Red Sox are relying on Tanner Houck to keep them in the game. He has been fairly inconsistent lately, alternating good starts with bad starts. But, over the season, he has just two starts where he has allowed four or more earned runs. They both have come this month. The Diamondbacks hitters have never really faced Houck so it is possible it will take a trip through the order to figure him out.
Nonetheless, I’m not scared of Houck. I think Kelly is a more reliable pitcher right now and I also think that the Diamondbacks win this game. At a reasonable price of -125, I think we take the Diamondbacks to win this one.
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