Dan Campbell Deserves All The Credit For Incredible 4th Down Decision-Making In Lions Win Over Chargers
Analytics gets such a bad rap. Mostly because the majority of people don't understand it. People think it means "go for it on fourth down all the time." It doesn't. And, Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell understands it better than almost everyone else.
Most talking heads in NFL circles bemoan aggressive coaches. "Punt it and play defense." "Take the points." Common phrases that the old-school analysts love to trot out every week.
Here's the reason people trumpet those strategies: they rarely face criticism. Making an aggressive decision means an immediate result. Either you get it, or you don't. Right then, the decision is graded right or wrong.
But, when it comes the conservative decision, there is no immediate result. We don't know if the punt was the right call until the result of the ensuing drive. Taking the points seems great, but we don't know if a team just cost itself four points.
Or, even if they failed, what the opponent might have done with the football.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell claps during the NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Chargers. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
In other words, it's very easy to advocate for the conservative decision because that's rarely ever "wrong." Except, those decisions are often wrong. People just don't realize it.
Dan Campbell makes bold call that leads to Detroit Lions win over Chargers
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell made a decision late in his team's win over the Los Angeles Chargers that very few, if any, other NFL head coaches would have made.
Rather than attempt a go-ahead field goal on fourth-and-2, he kept his offense on the field. Why? Because there were still over 100 seconds left on the clock.
He didn't want to kick a field goal only to see the Chargers -- and quarterback Justin Herbert -- drive down the field for a game-winning touchdown. Or, at the very least, a game-tying field goal.
Rather than give them that chance, Campbell decided to let his offense be the one to decide the result. They converted and won the game.
Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions celebrates as he walks off the field after beating the Los Angeles Chargers. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
The Lions went for five fourth downs, despite never trailing in the game. They failed once -- on a fourth-and-goal -- and faced another fourth-and-goal on the very next series. Campbell didn't hesitate, went for it again, and the Lions converted.
Here's the thing that most people never take into account when it comes to these decisions, particularly the fourth-and-goal play.
The opponent has to start with the ball deep in their own territory if the team doesn't convert. The decision isn't simply "take three points and give up the the chance for seven." No, it's take the three points and give the opponent the ball on the 25-yard line.
OR, if you go for the touchdown, you either get the seven points or you get zero BUT the opponent has the ball just outside their own goal line.
You can look at it this way, too. Campbell went for two fourth-and-goal opportunities. His team converted one and scored seven total points. Had he elected to kick field goals in both situations, his team would have had six points. Even with the 50% success rate, the Lions achieved a net positive result.
Most people hate analytics because they simply don't understand it
Football is a game of probabilities. The way the game is going matters, too. I can guarantee that Campbell would have kicked the field goal if the score were 10-10 and neither offense was moving the ball.
But, that wasn't the case. Herbert and the Chargers were moving the ball at will, just like the Lions. In fact, the Chargers had three second-half possessions. They scored touchdowns on all of them.
This was definitely a "team with the ball last wins" game.
Dan Campbell made sure his team had the ball last. And the Detroit Lions won the game because of it.
Good for him. He had the stones to make a decision that could have backfired and caused criticism. If the Lions fail there, and the Chargers win, Campbell faces massive backlash.
Conversely, if the Lions just kick the field goal and the Chargers ultimately win, most people would focus on the Chargers winning the game. They would quickly forget about the field goal decision.
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell celebrates during his team's win over the Los Angeles Chargers. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
See, that's why most coaches don't have the stones to make that call. That's why most analysts don't have the stones to recommend that call.
They're afraid of criticism. I have massive respect for those who make hard decisions in the face of criticism.
Dan Campbell tries to make the right decision, even when other people see it as the wrong decision.
More often than not, he's right.
And, that's a big reason why the Detroit Lions are 15-4 in their last 19 games. It's a big reason why they're well on their way to their first playoff berth since 2016.
Because Dan Campbell isn't afraid to lose. He plays to win.
The Detroit Lions are winning. A lot.