Six Candidates Have Better Odds To Win 2024 Election Than Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Robert Kennedy Jr. all have better odds of winning the 2024 presidential election than Nikki Haley.

OddsChecker released updated odds on Tuesday, as follows:

 1. Donald Trump, +124

2. Joe Biden, +250

3. Michelle Obama, +1350

4. Gavin Newsom, +2100

5. Kamala Harris, +2700

6. Robert Kennedy Jr., +3100

7. Nikki Haley, +4100

Nikki Haley's campaign is dead. The rejection from primary voters in her home state of South Carolina over the weekend confirmed that.

She will not be the GOP nominee, barring something truly grotesque happening to Donald Trump. 

CNN data states that "no other major, modern candidate has refused to drop out of the race after so many losses," in reference to Haley's insistence on continuing her failed campaign. 

The only question is whom Trump will face in November. 

The odds favor a linear path in which Trump and Biden face off in a rematch. Obviously. But Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom continue to gain momentum via the betting market, which was eerily accurate in both 2016 and 2020.

The idea that the Democrat Party could replace Biden during the DNC convention this summer remains plausible, as his poll numbers and feet perpetually stumble. 

Podcast host Joe Rogan popularized idea last week, predicting that Newsom would be on the ballot.

"I think they’re gonna get rid of [Biden]," said Rogan. "I think they’re gonna move him out, they’re gonna force him to step down. That’s what I think.

"If I had to guess, and it's just speculation, I'd say they're setting up Gavin Newsom for it."

Stephen A. Smith agrees.

"Now, here's where I'm going: I am in no way saying that me, myself, supports this move, but what makes sense if you are a flaming liberal, what makes sense is that Biden bows out, and [California Gov.] Gavin Newsom takes the mantle and runs for the presidency against . . . the Republican nominee," Smith told OutKick's Clay Travis in December.

Kamala Harris and RFK Jr. as an independent are not realistic candidates – thus leaving us with Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom, should the party remove Biden.

To me, it all depends on whether Michelle would be willing to run. 

Democrats staked their claim to the culture war on the hypothesis that they are the more racially sensitive party. Kicking Kamala to the side in favor of a white man, as in Newsom, would not sit well with the more progressive wing of the party. 

The only way to jump a black woman in line without fierce hysteria is by jumping her with another black woman, as in Michelle Obama. 

I spoke with Stacy Washington on SiriusXM last week about the dynamics in place that make Michelle a more favorable candidate than Newsom within the party.  Listen to that conversation here. 

Clay Travis concurs:

(Of course, aliens exist.)

All in all, Michelle at +1350 is fair value.

Clearly, Newsom and Michelle provide a more satisfying alternative to Biden in the category of cognitive capability. However, their policies regarding immigration could dictate how they'd fare against Trump in a general election.

American voters say immigration – not race, supposed threats to democracy, or even the economy – is their main concern heading into the election:

Biden has handled immigration with negligence. And that, among all else, is why Trump is the favorite to win the election come November.

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