Cubs +1.5 Covers Vs Brewers in Milwaukee Saturday

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The Chicago Cubs (55-71) meet the Milwaukee Brewers (65-59) Saturday for the second of their three-game set at American Family Field. These teams are trending in opposite directions however which team is heading in what direction is interesting.

Chicago has a better winning percentage than Milwaukee over the last 10, 20 and 30 games. The Cubs are 17 games behind the 1st-place St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central while the Brewers have fallen 6 games behind.

But, Milwaukee is failing to live up to preseason expectations. The Brew Crew are 2.5 games behind the final NL Wild Card seed. Milwaukee needs to turn its season around ASAP to make the playoffs.

Can the Brew Crew get right against a plucky division foe?

The Cubs won the series opener 4-3 in extra innings Friday and Chicago leads the season series with Milwaukee 10-7.

Betting Deets (DraftKings)

  • Moneyline: Cubs (+160), Brewers (-190)
  • Run Line (RL): Cubs +1.5 (-130), Brewers -1.5 (+110)
  • Total: 8— Over (-105), Under (-115) 
Milwaukee Brewers Brandon Woodruff pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Getty Images).


Chicago: LHP Drew Smyly is 5-7 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 83 innings pitched (IP) over 17 starts.

  • 4.09 expected ERA (xERA), 20.3% K-rate, 5.4% BB-rate (14.9% K-BB%) and 1.30 home runs per 9 (HR/9).
  • 2022 vs. Brewers: No-decision in Chicago’s 3-1 home loss May 30 with 3-scoreless IP, 0 hits, 1 BB and 3 K (1 start).

Milwaukee: RHP Brandon Woodruff is 9-3 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 102 2/3 IP across 19 starts.

  • 3.47 xERA, 28.8% K-rate, 7.3% BB-rate (21.5% K-BB%) and 1.14 HR/9.
  • 2022 vs. Cubs: 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 7/5 K/BB rate and 2 HRs (2 starts).


Let’s BET the CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 (-130) on the RL at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chicago is 25-9 RL with a plus-26.7% return on investment (ROI) as road underdogs vs. right-handed starters. Also, the Cubs are 12-7 RL vs. the Brewers with a plus-19.9% ROI in 2022.

Milwaukee’s lineup is terrible vs. left-handed pitching as well. The Brewers rank 26th in wRC+, 25th in wOBA and 21st in BB/K rate against lefties, per FanGraphs. A bad Chicago lineup averages more runs per 9 against left-handed pitching than the Brewers vs. righties (4.14-3.65).

Finally, Smyly has been dealing post-All-Star break. He has surrendered just 3 earned runs in his last 4 starts. Smyly is 3-2 in 6 starts following the All-Star game with a 2.38 ERA (4.22 ERA pre-All-Star game) and 1.03 WHIP (1.35 WHIP pre-All-Star game).

Head over DraftKings Sportsbook and BET CHICAGO CUBS +1.5 (-130).

  • A $130 wager on the Cubs +1.5 (-130) returns a $100 profit if Chicago wins or loses by only 1 run.

Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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