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There are only two more days before I can return back into my NBA betting bubble until March Madness. To kill time, I’m going to throw some hard earned cash at college hoops games Tuesday.
My three betting looks in college basketball Tuesday are in the ranked Big East battle of Marquette-Creighton, a Big Ten showdown between Indiana-Michigan State and Utah State-Wyoming in the Mountain West.
No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles (21-6) at No. 19 Creighton Bluejays (18-9), 5:30 p.m. ET
Per VSIN, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook. Nearly two-thirds of the cash is on Creighton while more than 60% of the bets placed are on Marquette at the time of writing.
Usually, it’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than you or I. Hopefully, at the time of tip-off, the Golden Eagles become the public side.
The pros are on the Bluejays even though they lost 69-58 at the Golden Eagles on Dec. 16. Creighton was missing leading scorer, C Ryan Kalkbrenner, vs. Marquette. The Bluejays lost all three games Kalkbrenner sat earlier this season.
Kalkbrenner is a legit 7-footer and creates matchup problems for the Golden Eagles. His absence was a big reason the Bluejays went just 4-for-20 from 3. Kalkbrenner’s gravitational pull opens up looks for Creighton’s 3-point shooters.
Marquette is 201st in defensive 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed so the Creighton will get quality looks. The Bluejays are 31st in effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and the Golden Eagles rank 247th in defensive eFG%.
Creighton on the other hand closes out on 3-point shooters. The Bluejays are 8th in defensive 3PAr allowed, per Ken Pom. They are also 13th in defensive rebounding rate and second in defensive FT/FGA rate.
College Hoops Best Bet #1: Creighton -5.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
No. 17 Indiana Hoosiers (19-8) at Michigan State Spartans (16-10), 9 p.m. ET
Michigan State is a tough place to play and that should be especially true in this spot. This is the Spartans’ 1st home game since the tragic on-campus shooting.
The Spartans are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) at home in Big Ten games and 5-2 ATS vs. ranked teams with a +4.0 spread differential.
As Indiana leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis said: “That place is going to be rocking.” The Hoosiers are just 2-6 ATS in road games vs. Big Ten teams and 2-5 ATS as an underdogs with a -4.2 ATS margin.
Michigan State’s edge in backcourt experience is a bigger factor at home. On the road, Indiana commits 4.6 more turnovers per game than their opponent.
The Spartans have two upperclassmen at guard and the Hoosiers have two underclassmen. Finally, Michigan State is a much better 3-point shooting team at home.
The Spartans make -2.7 fewer 3-pointers per game than their opponent and shoot 33.3% from 3 on the road. At home, Michigan State shoots 40.1% from 3 and has +4.1 made 3-point differential.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Michigan State -2.5 (-110)
Utah State (21-7) at Wyoming Cowboys (8-18), 9 p.m. ET
This is a Mountain West matchup so it’s probably not on a lot of bettors’ radar. But let’s fade one of the worst 3-point defenses in the country (Wyoming) against a prolific Utah State 3-point offense.
The Cowboys rank 324th in defensive 3-point shooting, 285th in 3PAr allowed and 272nd in defensive turnover rate (TOV%). While the Aggies are 5th in 3-point percentage.
Also, I’m riding Utah State’s momentum entering Tuesday. The Aggies came back from a 21-point deficit in their last outing to beat Nevada 75-66 and didn’t even shoot well from 3.
Wyoming on the other hand has lost seven of the last 10 games and six of those seven losses were by at least eight points.
Lastly, Utah State takes care of business on the road against bad teams. The Aggies have covered five straight road games vs. teams with a losing home record.
College Hoops Best Bet #3: Utah State -6 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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