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There is only one matchup between two top-25 teams Wednesday in college hoops so we’re gonna have to look for an edge in a non-Power 5 game.
One of my gambling looks is in the SEC showdown between Texas A&M-Auburn and the other is the Southern Conference game of Wofford-Chattanooga.
Wofford Terriers (11-10) at Chattanooga Mocs (11-10), 7 p.m. ET
Truth be told, I don’t know anything about either team. I didn’t even know they played in the Southern Conference before diving into this matchup.
However, Chattanooga has a lot more experience than Wofford. According to college basketball guru Ken Pom, the Mocs are 23rd nationally in experience and the Terriers are 329th.
Experience means more in these non-Power 5 matchups between programs that aren’t recruiting top-notch talent. Wofford has three underclassmen in the starting 5 whereas all five Chattanooga starters are upperclassmen.
Chattanooga is better from 3. The Mocs have the highest 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) in the country and are 64th in 3-point shooting percentage. Wofford ranks 319th in 3PAr allowed and 217th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage.
Furthermore, Chattanooga has much better ball movement. The Mocs are 18th in assists per field goal made and the Terriers are 286th.
Finally, Chattanooga was 3-0 straight up (SU) with a +14.0 SU margin and 3-0 against the spread (ATS) vs. Wofford last season with a +12.2 ATS margin.
My lone concern with this game is the line movement: The Mocs opened at -4 and they are down to -2. I have to assume that’s presumably sharp money since average Joes aren’t betting a Southern Conference game on a random Wednesday.
College Hoops Best Bet #1: Chattanooga -2 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Texas A&M Aggies (13-6) at No. 15 Auburn Tigers (16-3), 9 p.m. ET
We are getting late to the party on Texas A&M because it opened as 7-point underdogs and dropped to +4 . That said, the Aggies performs better than the Tigers in the battle of the possessions.
Texas A&M has a +5.8 rebound-per-game and +1.9 turnover-per-game margin. Whereas Auburn has a +3.9 rebound-per-game and +0.8 turnover-per-game margin.
Also, there Texas A&M has two strength-on-weakness edges over Auburn on the glass and manipulating the officials.
The Tigers last two bigs — Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith Jr. — went to the NBA this past offseason and it’s effected their defensive rebounding.
According to Ken Pom, Auburn is 284th in defensive rebounding rate and Texas A&M is 11th in offensive rebounding rate.
On top of that, the Aggies get to the charity stripe at the sixth-highest rate in the nation and the Tigers are 292nd nationally in defensive FT/FGA rate.
Finally, this is a “better spot” for Texas A&M. Auburn is 4-6 ATS at home this season, 4-3 ATS in SEC games and 2-10 ATS following its last 12 ATS wins.
The Aggies are 4-1 ATS on the road with a +10.3 ATS margin, 4-2 in SEC games with a +9.5 ATS margin and 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Tigers.
College Hoops Best Bet #2: Texas A&M Aggies +4 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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