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We went a beautiful 4-0 last Saturday so let’s try to replicate that success with four plays – an over, an under, a side, and a moneyline bet. Let’s get right to it:
Western Kentucky vs. Army
Both of these teams are coming off wins in which they each scored a ton of points. Western Kentucky dropped 59 points and allowed 21. Army scored 43 points and allowed just 10 to their opponent. I think this week will be a bit more of a contested matchup. Army’s defense should prove a much more difficult opponent for Western Kentucky. On the other hand, Army’s offense was really successful last game, but typically you won’t see that type of offensive outburst from them. I’m expecting this game to be in the low 20s for the winner. The total has already dropped a bit from the 53 opener, and I wouldn’t be super comfortable taking this at much lower, but play the under 51.5 at -110.
Missouri vs. Kentucky
Kentucky had a great start to their season with an easy 45-10 victory over ULM. Sure, go ahead and look them up, they are a real school. Now they get a bit more of a test against a Missouri team that started their season against Central Michigan. Where I think that Kentucky will succeed again is in the passing game. Missouri gave up nearly 300 yards in the air during their last game and Kentucky is likely to continue to attack that route. On the other side, Kentucky will have their hands full trying to stop Tyler Badie, Missouri running back. Kentucky’s offensive line also should protect their quarterback better than Central Michigan did. I don’t expect Missouri to get nine sacks. Even with the defensive effectiveness, Missouri gave up 24 points. Play the over 55.5 at -112.
Temple vs. Akron
Both of these teams have something in common from the first week of the season. Both gave up 60 points to their opponent in a losing effort. So, who has a better chance of winning this battle of the beaten this week? Temple actually appears to have a slightly better defense than Akron does, but part of that is based on yardage and a lot of that is the result of five turnovers. Akron is actually better at controlling the ball, and that could be the difference-making stat in this game. I think this comes down to turnovers. I think the combination of Akron being at home and them facing a team more in their realm gives us a chance to play an upset. This is mostly based on the value as Temple probably is the better team overall, but I’ll take a shot on Akron at +210.
Georgia Southern vs. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Southern opened their season against a team that I’m guessing no one outside of their graduates have heard of – Gardner Webb. On the other hand, Florida Atlantic had a much harder start to the season with ranked Florida beating them 35-14. I was impressed at the way they hung in there with a team that is certainly better. Playing from behind, Florida Atlantic had to pass a lot in the game and racked up 261 yards. This is a good sign for them against a Georgia Southern team that allowed 365 yards through the air last game. In order to win the game, Florida Atlantic simply must stop the run. They allowed 400 rushing yards to the Gators and that plays into Georgia Southern’s plan of pacing the attack on the ground, getting 365 yards. I do think that Florida Atlantic will be up to the task to stop the Georgia Southern offense and think that they can cover the -6.5 spread at -118. Pounce on it before it moves up to seven.