Coinflip Matchup Edges Towards Blue Jays

Yesterday, we played the Yankees to win the first half of their game against the Blue Jays. It didn’t even come close as they collapsed after their dramatic win. I mentioned that Jose Berrios is super hard to predict, but had reasons for fading him. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. Here we are returning to the same series.

Toronto sends Kevin Gausman to the mound. Their offseason acquisition has worked out for them this year with a solid 3.16 ERA. Where has really excelled though, is on the road. He has only allowed 13 earned runs in 64 innings. He’s made one start against the Yankees this season, it was at Yankee Stadium and he allowed just two earned runs in 5.2 innings. With the way the Yankees are playing and hitting right now, Gausman has to be one of the last pitchers they want to see. The pressure is all on the Yankees to avoid losing another series. The Yankees have been fairly successful against him, though so it won’t be easy. If Gausman can keep Aaron Judge under control (8-for-20 with 3 home runs and 2 doubles against him) I think the Blue Jays can win.

Jameson Taillon is going for the Yankees. He’s one of the better pitchers that the Yankees bring to the rotation, and while I’m not overly confident in him, I recognize that he keeps the Yankees in games more often than he loses them for them. One reason for concern though is since May, his ERA has continued to climb. It was just 2.01 in May, then rose to 4.59 in June, 5.04 in July, and now 5.30 in three August starts. The one team he has consistently stifled though is the Blue Jays. This year, he has four starts already against them and has allowed just five earned runs in 22 innings. It isn’t that the Blue Jays aren’t hitting him, they have 20 hits in that span, it is that they aren’t converting those into many runs.

I like the Blue Jays in this one through five innings on the moneyline at -120.

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Written by David Troy

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