While the coronabros are panicking about Arizona, Texas, and California, let’s pause and look at what’s really going on.
The big headline is that deaths continue to decrease. They’ve gone down nearly 20% from last Tuesday to this Tuesday.
Actually, it’s a lot larger than that. Deaths are down 90% from the highpoint in April and we are working on the 10th straight week of declining deaths since then.
Why are deaths down?
Because the people who are sick right now are those in their 20s and 30s. Overall, they’re not having severe health consequences.
If they go to the hospital at all, they spend a couple days there before they’re discharged.
Remember, half of the people who are dying — in most states — are in nursing homes. If you are outside of a nursing home, even if you get the coronavirus, you have a 99.8% chance of being fine.
The media is focused on young people who are getting sick. They aren’t telling you that deaths have declined by 90%.
Could it change? Certainly. If we’ve learned anything, it is that trying to make realistic and reliable predictions – even for expert epidemiologists – is incredibly difficult to do.
But the data reflects that deaths are down 90% from the peak at the end of April and why that’s not the top story in every media outlet is lunacy.