Circa Millions NFL Week 1 Picks

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Prior to the start of every NFL season, I head to Las Vegas and enter an NFL season-long handicapping contest. The first couple of years it was the Westgate Super Contest. But, I switched over to the Circa Sports Million IV because of their guaranteed prize pool.

Every week entrants make five NFL picks against the spread (ATS) vs. betting lines provided by Circa Wednesday that week. Winning picks are worth one point, losing picks zero points and ATS ties a half-point.

Circa Sports in Las Vegas has a $6 million guaranteed prize pool that pays down 100 spots. First place pays $1 million and the Circa Sports Million IV also has quarterly prizes. There are “booby” prizes for players who finish last in the season-long and quarterly contests as well.

The best thing about Circa Sports Million IV is the overlay:

My contest name is “Geoffrow Records” if you want to follow along. Obviously, I’ll be posting my record weekly moving forward. But, let’s get into my Circa Sports Million IV Week 1 selections …

Circa NFL Week 1 Picks

  1. Browns at PANTHERS -1.5
  2. Jaguars at COMMANDERS -2.5
  3. Chiefs at CARDINALS +6
  4. Raiders at CHARGERS -3.5
  5. Broncos at SEAHAWKS +6.5

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers

Piggybacking off fellow OutKick handicapper, David Troy, this will be dubbed the Baker Mayfield Revenge Game and Baker will get his revenge in Week 1 vs. the Browns. But, in addition to Mr. Troy’s analysis, Carolina’s defense was sneaky good last season.

The Panthers’ defense was seventh in expected points added per, third in yards per play allowed, third in adjusted sack rate and fourth in success rate.

Carolina Panthers QBs Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

However, the Panthers were held back last season due to an atrocious performance from QB Sam Darnold. Carolina’s defense will match up well against Cleveland and its backup QB Jacoby Brissett. All Baker needs to do is keep the offense on schedule and get the ball to Christian McCaffery.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders

I already broke Jaguars-Commanders down in length but the gist of my handicap used the angle: Public ‘dogs get slaughtered. Jacksonville opened as 3.5-point underdogs and public action moved them down to 2.5 on the contest line.

However, the Jaguars have won only four games over the last two seasons and their favoritism in the market is based on non-football things. The bottom line is Washington has a better roster from the top-down and only has to win by a field goal. That’s easy money in my opinion.

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals

This is another game I already ‘capped earlier this week. But, I think the market is too low on Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury and superstar QB Kyler Murray. That’s right, I think Kyler is a superstar and I’ll take anything more than a field goal with him at full health in Arizona.

For the record, the Sunday morning injury news for the Cardinals is alarming. If I didn’t already have Arizona ATS and moneyline in my account, I wouldn’t bet the Cardinals on Sunday.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

It’s a home-road game for the Raiders who’ll have a lot more support in L.A. than the “home-town” Chargers.

But, Justin Herbert is an alpha, playing behind an elite offensive line and with above-average weapons. L.A.’s retooled defense and revenge motivation are other handicapping angles I included in a Raiders-Chargers breakdown earlier this week.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

I’ll cover Broncos-Seahawks in greater detail Monday but, again, I’m a sucker for a good revenge game.

However, I think Seahawks coach Pete Carroll gets his revenge on new Broncos QB Russell Wilson. Not the other way around. Give me the 12th Man and a veteran, Super Bowl-winning coach vs. a rookie head coach.

Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.

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Written by Geoff Clark

Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Previously, Clark was a writer/podcaster for USA TODAY's Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.

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