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Week 1 in the Circa Million IV was above-average for ya boy. I went 3-2 and am tied for 1,052nd place out of 4,691 entries. The Circa Million quarterly prize is almost out of the question but it was a solid start nonetheless. Here’s a look at my Week 1 picks:
- Browns at PANTHERS -1.5❌
- Jaguars at COMMANDERS -2.5✅
- Chiefs at CARDINALS +6❌
- Raiders at CHARGERS -3.5✅
- Broncos at SEAHAWKS +6.5✅
Circa NFL Week 2 Picks
- Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, fifth is least.
- Buccaneers at SAINTS +2.5
- Vikings at EAGLES -2
- TITANS +10 at Bills
- DOLPHINS +3.5 at Ravens
- Panthers at GIANTS -2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
This is my favorite pick on the Week 2 Circa card because the Saints have dominated the Bucs since Tom Brady went to Tampa Bay in 2020. New Orleans is 4-0 overall and against the spread with a +19.7 ATS margin in those meetings.
On top of that, overreactions to Week 1 results have gotten us a better price on the Saints. The Bucs just embarrassed the Dallas Cowboys on primetime while the Saints eked past the Atlanta Falcons as 5.5-point road favorites last week.
Read my full Buccaneers-Saints handicap here.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Everyone loving Minnesota’s offense after its 23-7 beatdown of the Green Bay Packers in Week 1’s biggest overreaction. The Vikings’ win had more to do with Green Bay’s struggles than anything they did.
For instance, Minnesota’s defense got very little pressure on Aaron Rodgers and only put up 23 points despite multiple breakdowns in Green Bay’s defense. The Packers were missing both starting tackles and three wide receivers from last year’s squad.
Vikings-Eagles is the second of a Monday Night Football (MNF) doubleheader, which I’ll break down more so Monday.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Titans-Bills is the first MNF game to kickoff as part of a MNF doubleheader. Tennessee is the right side here because the Titans have been feisty underdogs since coach Mike Vrabel was hired in 2018. In fact, Tennessee has upset Buffalo as underdogs in each of the last two seasons.
This is another handicap I’ll go into further detail about Monday.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
The Dolphins ran a “Cover 0” high-pressure scheme and left their cornerbacks on islands vs. the Ravens’ weak WR corp. Well, Miami has the same personnel as last season and Baltimore’s wide receiver room is still below average.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Truth be told, as a lifelong Giants fan, I usually stay away from betting N.Y. hence the Giants being at the bottom of my Circa card. However, it’s tough to find five NFL sides in a weekly slate and there’s a lot to like about N.Y. in this matchup.
First of all, Carolina’s Week 1 home loss to the Cleveland Browns could be an emotional letdown. Especially for first-year Panthers QB Baker Mayfield who was out for revenge vs. his former team.
Furthermore, Carolina’s defense gave up 26 points to a one-dimensional Browns offense that was playing their backup quarterback. Cleveland did so by trampling the Panthers on the ground. The Browns gained 217 rushing yards as a team on 39 carries Sunday vs. the Panthers.
Also, Sunday will be N.Y.’s home opener and the first time the Giants have been above .500 in six seasons. Giants rookie head coach Brian Daboll had a phenomenal first game, beating the defending AFC 1-seed, on the road with a game-winning drive in the final minutes.
Lastly, N.Y. beat the brakes off Carolina 25-3 in N.Y. last season. Granted, the Panthers were starting QB Sam Darnold whom they replaced after signing Mayfield. But, the Giants were missing WRs Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney and RB Saquon Barkley.
The Giants faithful is going to have MetLife Stadium rocking Sunday and will motivate the G-Men past the Panthers in Week 1.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.